冀北电网灾害事故的时空分布特征及风险评价

Temporal-spatial Distribution Characteristics of Power Grid Disaster Accidents and Risk Assessment in Northern Hebei

利用2005—2017年冀北电网输电线路逐日灾害事故记录和同期气象观测资料,统计分析该地区电网线路灾害事故的时空分布特征,评价电网输电线路的气象灾害事故风险等级。研究发现:(1)造成冀北地区电网灾害事故类型多样且分布极不均匀,主要灾种有雷害、冰害、风偏和污闪,其中雷害最多,占事故总数的70. 1%,而污闪占比最少,为3. 8%。(2)雷害频数均占冀北五地市电网气象灾害事故首位,冰害、风偏和污闪在不同地区影响不同,其中冰害、风偏对张家口电网影响较大,风偏、冰害和污闪对唐山电网影响较大,而承德、秦皇岛和廊坊电网受雷害以外灾种影响均较小。(3)冀北电网灾害事故月分布呈双峰型,主峰和次峰分别出现在6—8月和11月,主峰主要由雷害事故引起,次峰主要由冰害事故引起; 13 a间,冀北电网线路各种灾害事故均无明显变化趋势。(4)张家口东部、承德西部和南部、唐山北部是冀北电网线路气象灾害事故高风险区,唐山和秦皇岛南部、廊坊东部、张家口中部是电网线路事故低风险区,其他地区为中风险区。

Based on daily disaster and accident information of transmission lines in power grid of northern Hebei Province and meteorological observation data from 2005 to 2017,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of disaster accidents of power grid were statistically analyzed,and the meteorological disaster risk of transmission lines were assessed.The results are as follows:(1)There were diverse disasters causing accidents of transmission lines in power grid of northern Hebei Province during 2005-2017,mainly including lightning disaster,ice disaster,windage yaw and pollution flashover,and their distributions were very uneven.The frequency of transmission line accidents causing by lightning disaster was most,and it accounted for 70.1%of total accidents,while the proportion of pollution flashover was least(3.8%).(2)The frequency of lightning disaster accidents was the first in power grid accidents in five cities of northern Hebei Province,but the effects of ice disaster,windage yaw and pollution flashover on transmission lines were different in different areas.The effect of ice disaster and windage yaw on power grid in Zhangjiakou was greater,while for windage yaw,ice disaster and pollution flashover in Tangshan it was greater.The meteorological disasters had a few influence except lightning disaster on power grid in Chengde,Qinhuangdao and Langfang.(3)The monthly distribution curve of accident frequency of power grid in northern Hebei presented a double peak shape,the major and secondary peaks occurred in June to August and November,respectively,and the lightning disaster mainly caused power grid accidents in major peak period,while the ice disaster was main in secondary peak period.The various disaster accidents of transmission line in northern Hebei Province hadn’t obvious change trend during 2005-2017.(4)The risk of meteorological disasters causing transmission line accidents was high in eastern part of Zhangjiakou,western and southern part of Chengde,northern part of Tangshan,while it was relatively low in southern part of Tangshan,southern part of Qinhuangdao,eastern part of Langfang and central Zhangjiakou.The risk in other region was moderate.