考虑不确定性的机枪作战效能综合评估方法

Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Combat Effectiveness of Machine Gun Considering Interval Uncertainty

针对现有机枪设计方案评估体系不完备以及评估指标存在不确定性的问题,提出一种考虑不确定性的机枪作战效能综合评估方法。从机枪战术技术要求出发,建立基于区间数的机枪作战效能综合评估指标体系,根据评估指标的不确定性表达形式,结合熵权法和层次分析法确定指标组合权重;采用基于区间数的灰色关联分析与逼近理想解排序算法对不同机枪设计方案进行综合评估,提出一种基于欧氏距离的灰色关联度来表征各评估方案与理想方案的相对接近程度,以解决存在不确定性情况下各方案区分度不高的问题。机枪作战效能评估实例表明,该方法的评估结果与专家评估结果一致,且该方法充分考虑了评估方案间的关联程度和差距,得到的评估结果可信度更高,验证了综合评估指标体系的合理性和评估方法的有效性。

A comprehensive-criterion-based machine gun design evaluation method in which interval-uncertainty is considered is proposed to address the incompleteness and uncertainty related to the indices for evaluating the combat effectiveness of machine gun designs.The initial indices for evaluating the combat effectiveness of machine gun designs based on interval number are established from the technical and tactical requirements of machine guns.Based on the interval uncertainty functions of the initial evaluation indices,the combined weights of the evaluation indices are determined using interval entropy method and analytic hierarchy process(AHP).Based on the grey relational analysis(GRA)method and the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)in terms of interval numbers,the different machine gun designs are compared,and a gray correlation degree based on Euclidean distance is defined to characterize the similarity between the alternatives,thus effectively solving the problem of interval uncertainty.An example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.