资源型城市能源-经济-环境-技术耦合研究——以攀枝花为例

Investigation of the Coupling of Energy-economy-environment-technology in Resource——based City:A Case Study of Panzhihua

构建了资源型城市的3E1T系统,包括能源、经济、环境和技术四个子系统。用耦合模型测算了2006—2015年攀枝花市的3E1T系统的协调度,并用灰色预测模型对该系统2016—2020年的耦合度进行了预测分析。结果表明:(1)攀枝花市的3E1T系统耦合协调发展总体呈上升趋势,朝着耦合协调的方向发展,但协调发展水平有待提高;(2)攀枝花的能源子系统发展极不稳定,制约了整个系统的耦合协调度;(3)攀枝花市的经济和环境子系统发展较好,技术子系统的发展速度有待提升。3E1T系统耦合分析表明,资源型城市的发展需要能源、经济、环境和技术四个子系统的协调共进。

3E1T system for resource-based cities was constructed,including four subsystems of energy,economy,environment and technology.The 3E1T system in Panzhihua from 2006 to 2015 was analyzed with the method of the coupling coordination,and degree of coupling coordination was evaluated between 2016 and 2020 with the grey prediction model.Results showed the following conclusions.Firstly,the coordinated development of the 3E1T system in Panzhihua City is on the rise as a whole,moving in the direction of coupling and coordination,but the coordinated development level should be improved.Secondly,the development of energy subsystems in Panzhihua is extremely unstable,which restricts the coupling coordination of the entire system.Finally,Panzhihua's subsystems of economy and environment have developed well,but the development speed of technology subsystem needs to be improved.The coupling analysis of 3E1T system shows that the development of resource-based city requires coordination and co-development of four subsystems of energy,economy,environment and technology.