基于空间计量的流动人口与购房租房决策

随着城市化进程不断推进,城市中流动人口聚集效应愈发明显,其住房保障与城市融合困境逐渐成为了新时代社会矛盾一大特征。本文利用空间计量方法分析流动人口聚集值与其空间辐射效应,并结合省级房地产购租比、房价收入比、贷款利率等数值计算得出决策值进行决策选择分析。研究发现:流动人口聚集区基本与决策值分布一致,核心城市租房自住、持币观望为较优决策;空间辐射效应分析经济圈特征值向山西、湖北、河南扩散。据此提出建议:应大力发展流域经济,从节点城市引导决策由购转租,疏通二手房市场渠道以降低房屋空置率,保证市场有效供给,区域性差别政策应以降压力、降热度为关注重点。

With the continuous progress of urbanization,the aggregation effect of floating population in cities grows more and more obvious,and the dilemma of housing security and urban integration has gradually become a major feature of social contradictions in the new era.This paper uses the spatial measurement method to analyze the aggregation value of floating population and its spatial radiation effect,and combines the provincial real estate purchase/rent ratio,house price-to-income ratio and loan interest rate to calculate the decision value.The result concludes that the distribution of the floating population is identical to the decision value,and the better option for the people in core cities should be renting and holding money to wait and see.In addition,the results of spatial radiation effect analysis show that the influence of the economic circle spreads to Shanxi,Hubei and Henan.The author indicates that the government should focus on the vigorous development of basin economy,guide the decision making by purchasing to renting from node cities,dredge channels of the second-hand house market to ensure the drop of vacancy rate and the efficient supply of the market,and regional policy must concentrate on the pressure alleviation of the core cities.