应用最小二乘法和季节变动法预测某院2018年门诊人数

Prediction of outpatient number in a hospital in 2018 with the least square method and the seasonal variation method

目的应用最小二乘法和季节变动法预测某院2018年每月门诊人数,为院领导掌握本院的工作动态,制订工作计划、工作目标、决策提供科学依据。方法用移动平均法对某院2006—2017年的每月门诊人数求出季节指数,结合最小二乘法原理求得直线回归方程,计算出2018年每月门诊人数的预测值。结果该医院2018年门诊人数的高峰期为3月份,其中3月份门诊人数的预测值为75 925人,95%的置信区间为[64 574,87 276]。该院2018年门诊人数的低谷期为9月份,其中9月份门诊人数的预测值为63 761,95%的置信区间为[52 410,75 112]。结论综合运用移动平均季节指数法和最小二乘法求出的预测值,能较准确的反映我院每月门诊人数的变化规律,为院领导制订工作目标、计划、决策提供科学依据。

Objective To predict outpatient number per month in a hospital in 2018 with least square method and seasonal variation method,and to provide a scientific basis for hospital leaders to grasp the work dynamics of the hospital and to make work plans,work objectives and decisions.Methods The moving average method was used to calculate the seasonal index of outpatient number per month in a hospital from 2006 to 2017,and the least square method was used to get the linear regression equation and the predicted value of the number of outpatients per month in 2018.Results The peak of outpatient number in the hospital in 2018 was March,and the predicted number of outpatients in March was 75 925,with the 95%confidence interval[64 574,87 276].The trough period of the number of outpatients in the hospital in 2018 was September,and the predicted value of outpatient number in September was 63 761,with the 95%confidence interval[52 410,75 112].Conclusion The predicted value obtained by the method of moving average seasonal index and the least square method can reflect the change rule of outpatient number per month in our hospital,and provide scientific basis for the leaders of our hospital to make work goals,plans and decisions.