不确定性与中国宏观经济波动——基于NK-DSGE模型的研究

Uncertainty and China's Macroeconomic Fluctuations——Based on a NK-DSGE Model

基于包含不确定性的NK-DSGE模型,可以考察不确定性对中国宏观经济波动的影响。研究发现,不确定性显著改变了外生冲击影响宏观经济的动态路径。在此基础上,进一步采用条件方差分解方法考察不确定性在中国宏观经济波动中的影响作用。结果显示,不确定冲击是推动中国宏观经济波动最为重要的力量之一。因此,政策制定者为了稳定宏观经济,必须积极应对不确定性带来的影响。

Based on a NK-DSGE model with uncertainty,the effect of uncertainty on macroeconomic fluctuations is investigated.The result shows that uncertainty alters the dynamic response path of exogenous shocks.Based on this,the conditional variance decomposition method is introduced to calculate the effect of driven force of macroeconomic fluctuation to investigate the role of uncertainty shocks in the process of macroeconomic fluctuations.The result also shows that uncertainty shock is one of the main driven forces of China’s macroeconomic fluctuations.Therefore,the policy maker should pay attention to uncertainty shocks.