共协理论框架下信息通信技术对经济结构转变的作用:以美国1947-2016年数据为基础

The Analysis of Information Communication Technology in the Transformation of Economic Structure Based on the Theory of Co-association: Data of the United States from 1947 to 2016

经济数字化为当今世界经济结构变革的重要主题,信息通信技术(ICT)的应用极大地降低了通信成本和市场交易成本,降低企业运营和管理成本。以1970年为转折点,IT定价促进了美国经济运行机制的创新,对资源配置效率提高起关键性作用。ICT对经济增长的贡献会随着经济增长和经济结构的转变产生一系列新的变化。根据共协理论,运用利益分解法,建立基于劳动者报酬、资本收益和共协利益关系的新的经济增长模型,并通过分析ICT对固定资产投资、科技进步等主要因素的拉动作用,进而测算出ICT对经济增长的作用。结果显示,1947-2016年间,ICT对美国经济增长的贡献变化趋势呈"S"型,且一直为正。把ICT "生产率悖论"放到共协理论框架下,测算服务业对经济增长和生产率提高的贡献率,分析表明服务业与工业的结构失衡抑制了ICT对经济增长的促进作用,导致了ICT的"生产率悖论"。

The digitalization of the economy has become an important theme in the transformation of the world s economic structure.The application of new information technology has greatly reduced communication costs and market transaction costs,and reduced the company s operating and management costs.Jorgenson et al.believe that IT pricing promoted the innovation of the U.S.economic operating mechanism after 1970 and played a key role in improving the efficiency of resource allocation.Then,if the increase in the level of informatization promoted by ICT by one percentage point,which will bring about to economic growth?How does the ICT contributes to economic growth change as the U.S.economic growth and economic structure change?Based on the synergy theory,the thesis establishes a new model of economic growth from the perspectives of laborers compensation,capital gains,and co-contributions,measures the driving forces of fixed assets investment,technological advancement,and other major factors by ICT s development and then measures the effect of ICT on economic growth.It was found that,from 1947 to 2016,the trend of changes in ICT contribution to U.S.economic growth was“S”,and it was always positive;the emergence of“productivity paradox”was mainly due to the inconsistency between the development of service and industry.