考虑金融发展水平的人口老龄化对产业结构升级影响分析

The Influence of Population Aging on the Upgrading of Industrial Structure Considering the Level of Financial Development

在劳动密集型产业向资本和技术密集型产业转型升级中,金融发展起着重要的支撑作用。从人口结构变化与金融发展的关系出发,探析不同金融发展水平下人口老龄化对产业结构升级的动态影响,同时细化金融规模、金融效率、金融结构等具体维度在人口老龄化对产业结构升级影响的不同作用,有重要的现实意义。运用我国2002-2016年省级面板数据和不同金融指标,基于面板平滑转换(PSTR)模型的研究表明:金融发展水平的提高显著增强了人口老龄化对产业结构升级的促进作用,具体到金融规模和金融结构水平的上升也反映了这一趋势,金融效率则表现为贷款比重的下降不利于人口老龄化对产业结构升级的促进作用;从区域的情况来看,只有北京和上海的金融发展水平已经跨越了门槛值,而其他地区尚有一定的提升空间。具体的政策建议是,结合人口结构性变化的趋势,稳步提升金融发展水平,同时提高人力资本水平,以协同发展机制促进产业结构升级。

The increase in the ageing population in China and the weakening of the demographic dividend have brought many impacts on economic development.From the perspective of financial development,the impact of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure has been analyzed under different financial indicators.According to the provincial panel data of China from 2002 to 2016,the panel transition model was introduced.Empirical research shows that the improvement of financial development level has significantly promoted the positive effect of aging population on the upgrading of industrial structure,specifically to financial scale and financial structure level.The rise also reflects this trend.At the same time,financial efficiency shows that the decline in the proportion of loans is not conducive to the role of population aging in promoting the industrial structure.From the regional perspective,only the financial development level of Beijing and Shanghai is earlier.Land crosses the threshold,while other areas still have some room for improvement.