基于VAR模型的国内旅游业与铁路运输业互动关系研究

Research on the Interaction Between Domestic Tourism and Railway Transportation Industry in China Based on VAR Model

交通业和旅游业的融合发展需要注意两者的实际联动效果。以铁路运输业为例,建立了VAR模型,利用协整分析、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等,实证检验了1988—2016年间国内旅游人数与铁路客运量之间的互动关系。研究结果表明:铁路运输量与国内旅游人数存在长期的协整关系,前者对后者的推动效果不显著;从长期来看,国内旅游人数对铁路运输业的推动作用大于铁路运输业自身的促进作用,但是国内旅游人数更多依靠自身作用,铁路运输业对其发展的影响较小。最后,针对所得实证结果,提出了相应的对策与建议。

Attention should be paid to the integration of transportation industry and tourism as well as the actual linkage effects of the two.Taking the railway transportation industry as an example,a VAR model has thus been established based on the co-integration analysis,and using error correction model,impulse response function and variance decomposition,for an empirical test of the interaction between the number of domestic tourists and railway passenger traffic volume from 1988 to 2016.The conclusion shows that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between the latter and the former,with the former exerting no significant effect on the latter.In the long run,the number of domestic tourists plays a more important role in the promotion of the railway transport industry than that of the railway transport industry itself.However,the number of domestic tourists depends more on their own role,with a relative small impact on their development from the railway transportation industry.Finally,some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are to be put forward based on the empirical results.