基于土地利用的贵州省乌江流域生态系统服务价值演变分析

Analysis of ecosystem service value evolution of Wujiang River basin of Guizhou Province based on land use

生态系统服务价值研究可为区域可持续发展提供参考。采用动态度与转移矩阵方法分析2000—2015年贵州省乌江流域土地利用变化特征,并以土地利用数据为基础,采用修正后的生态系统服务价值指标体系,计算2000、2005、2010、2015年贵州省乌江流域生态系统服务价值,分析土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响,并运用GM(1.1)灰色模型对研究区内未来十年的生态系统服务价值进行预测。结果表明:(1)2000—2015年,乌江流域土地利用发生较大变化,林地、草地、水域、建设用地面积分别增加265936.98 hm^2、81622.9 hm^2、9369.11 hm^2和76679.31 hm^2,耕地面积则减少433815.29 hm^2,未利用地面积呈小范围波动态势。(2)2000—2015年,乌江流域生态系统服务价值由18.41×10^(10)元增至19.29×10^(10)元,增幅达4.8%。(3)生态系统服务价值对林地与耕地的变化较为敏感。(4)根据灰色模型预测出:到2030年,流域内的生态系统服务价值将继续增长至20.22×10^(10)元,耕地面积将继续快速减少,建设用地将呈几何倍数继续扩张,这将对区域粮食安全与生态环境带来不利影响。

The study of ecosystem service value can provide reference for regional sustainable development.By using the dynamic transfer matrix method and analysis the change of land use in Wujiang basin in 2000 to 2015 Guizhou Province,and the modified ecosystem service value index system,we calculated the ecosystem services value of Wujiang River Basin in Guizhou Province in 2000,2005,2010 and 2015 to analyze the impact of land use change on the ecosystem the value of service.We also forecast the ecosystem service value in the next 10 years in the region using GM(1.1)grey model.The results are as follows.(1)In 2000 to 2015,great changes took place in land use in the Wujiang River Basin;woodland,grassland,water area and construction land were increased by 265936.98 hm^2,81622.9 hm^2,9369.11 hm^2 and 76679.31 hm^2.433815.29 hm^2 of cultivated land decreased;unused land showed a small dynamic range of wave potential.(2)In 2000 to 2015,the ecosystem service value of Wujiang River basin increased from 18.41×10^10 yuan to 19.29×10^10 yuan,with the increase of 4.8%.(3)Ecosystem services value was sensitive to changes of forest land and cultivated land.(4)Based on grey model,prediction showed that by 2030,the basin ecosystem service value will continue to grow to 20.22×10^10 yuan;arable land will continue to decrease rapidly;the expansion of land will continue to geometric construction,which will have unfavorable effects to food security and regional ecological environment.