基于拓展退化率布朗运动模型的可靠性预测

Reliability prediction based on Brownian motion with extended degradation rate

工程应用中,恒定应力假设很难满足,现场采集的退化数据也反应了随机应力引起的波动性。针对考虑现场环境不确定性影响的设备可靠性预测问题,为了给予现场检测数据获取更加真实可靠的可靠性推断结果,提出联系加速老化试验默许与考虑应力可变性的方法,通过退化率布朗运动模型的泰勒级数近似表示法预测现场可靠性,实现了随机应力下退化可靠性分析问题。通过仿真研究表明,该拓展模型得到并验证了产品在随机应力下的加速效应,并证明该方法是一种联系加速老化试验与现场应用的有效工具。

In engineering applications,the assumption of constant stress is difficult to satisfy,and the degenerated data collected in the field also reflect the volatility caused by random stress.Considering the stochastic nature of storage conditions,to make results more reliable by the field test data acquisition reliability inference,this paper proposes a contact accelerated aging test method and using the acquiescence of the variability of the Taylor series,and degradation rate of Brown motion model approximation to predict field reliability is realized.Anglicizing of degradation reliability under random stress is also realized.Through simulation research,the accelerated model proposed and its acceleration effect of products under random stress are verified,and it is proved that the proposed method is an effective tool for accelerated aging test and field application.