不同能源密集烤房经济效益动态评估及敏感性分析

Dynamic evaluation and sensitivity analysis of economic benefits of bulk curing barn with different energy types

为探究烟叶烘烤新能源烤房投入使用的经济性及影响经济效益的主要因素。采用成本效益法对燃煤烤房、生物质烤房、醇基烤房和热泵烤房进行动态经济评估,并对不同情景下累计净现值变化进行敏感性分析。结果表明,4种能源烤房在经济上均可行;燃煤烤房的累计净现值最高,为30. 85万元,分别高出生物质烤房、醇基烤房、热泵烤房0. 57,2. 50,2. 40万元;年净现金流量以热泵烤房最高,为5. 92万元,分别高出燃煤烤房、生物质烤房、醇基烤房0. 69,0. 52,0. 87万元。燃料价格、供热设备成本、烤房建造费用、运营费用对烤房累计净现值影响不明显,烟叶产值和烤房使用期限变化对累计净现值影响显著,且醇基烤房对于烟叶产值变化的敏感性最强,热泵烤房对于烤房使用期限变化最为敏感。制定提升烤房利用率、增加烤房使用期限的相关政策是提升新型能源烤房经济效益的有效途径,同时在烤房建造、燃料价格方面依靠政府政策帮扶可在一定程度上降低新型能源烤房推广应用的阻力。

In order to explore the economic property of tobacco baking new energy barn and the main factors affecting economic benefits,the dynamic economic evaluation of coal fired barn,biomass curing barn,alcohol based curing barn and heat pump barn was carried out by cost benefit method.And the sensitivity analysis of cumulative NPV under different scenarios was conducted.The results show that the four kinds of energy barn are feasible in economic effect.The cumulative net present value of coalfired barn is the highest,which is 308.5 thousand Yuan.They are higher than that of the biomass curing barn,alcohol-based curing barn,heat pump barn 5.7,25,24 thousand Yuan respectively.The annual net cash flow is the highest in the heat pump barn,which is 59.2 thousand yuan.They are higher than coal burning barn,biomass curing barns and alcohol-based barn 6.9,5.2 and 8.7 thousand Yuan respectively.Fuel price,barn building cost and operating cost have no obvious influence on the total net present value of the barn.The output value of tobacco leaf and the change of the service life of the barn have significant influence on the accumulative net present value.And the alcohol based curing barn has the strongest sensitivity to the change of tobacco leaf output value,and the heat pump barn is the most sensitive to the change of the service life of the barn.It’s an effective way to improve the economic efficiency of the new energy barn by setting up relevant policies to improve the utilization rate of flue curing barn and increasing the service life of the barn in the industry.At the same time,relying on government policy in the construction of the barn and fuel prices can reduce the resistance of new energy barn extension application to a certain degree.