基于三大经济地区的农村社会保障供给消费效应分析

Analysis on consumption effect of rural social security supply based on three major economic regions

利用中国2000—2015年农村社会保障和消费等统计数据,以生命周期消费理论模型为基础,构建了农村社会保障消费效应模型,实证分析了中国及东部、中部、西部地区农村社会保障供给的消费效应。研究表明,中国农村社会保障和农村居民消费支出呈现较快的增长,地区差异明显,地区之间的差距逐步扩大;东、中、西部地区农村社会保障对农村居民消费支出具有挤入效应,且东部地区的挤入效应最大,中部地区次之,西部地区最小;储蓄率、人均可支配收入、人均社会保障收入、上一年人均消费支出对农村居民消费支出产生了显著影响;各地区经济发展水平、城市化水平、农村居民收入分配不同,对农村居民消费支出的影响也不同。

Using the statistical data of rural social security and consumption from 2000 to 2015,this paper does an empirical analysis of the consumption effect of rural social security supply in three economic regions of China by constructing consumption effect model of rural social security based on life cycle consumption theory model.The results show that rural social security and rural household consumption expenditure is characterized by a relatively rapid growth,with apparent regional differences and gradually expanding regional gaps.Rural social security has a crowding in effects on the three economic regions,and the eastern region is the largest,followed by the central region,and the western region is the smallest.The saving rate,per capita disposable income,per capita social security income and previous year per capita consumption expenditure have a marked impact on rural household consumption expenditure.There exist different influences of economic development,urbanization level,income distribution on rural household consumption expenditure in different regions.