基于PVAR模型的东北地区城市化、工业化与人口集聚分析

Analysis of Urbanization,Industrialization and Population Agglomeration in Northeast China Based on PVAR Model

城市化和工业化进程中东北人口流动和空间分布问题具有重要意义。本文分析了东北地区城市化和工业化的历史演进过程及发展特点,利用1987-2015年的相关城市数据,运用PVAR模型,通过系统广义矩估计(GMM)、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析等方法研究工业化、城市化和东北人口集聚之间的关系。结果显示城市化水平的提升强化了"沈阳、大连、长春、哈尔滨"四个中心城市的影响力,有利于全省人口向四个中心城市集聚。以重工业发展模式和资本密集型投资倾向为特征的东北工业化发展不利于人口的集聚,另外市场化进程缓慢和指令性经济的影响弱化了工业化与城市化之间的循环累积效应,导致工业化与城市化的互动影响较弱且持续时间不长。在进一步讨论中,运用静态面板数据模型进行稳健性检验,发现结论与PVAR模型一致。目前在东北人口流失的背景下,东北地区应该充分发挥区域中心城市和大城市的规模效益和资源集聚优势,合理安排产业比例,完善产业布局,确定好重工业与轻工业的发展关系,促使工业化向更高级阶段发展。此外,还要减少城市化与工业化之间的摩擦成本和协调成本,实现两者的互动协调发展,以便更好发挥人口集聚优势,带动东北区域经济的发展。

There is great significance to study the flow and spatial distribution of Northeast population dur?ing the process of urbanization and industrialization.Based on the analysis of the historical evolution pro?cess and the development characteristics of urbanization and industrialization in Northeast China,this pa?per uses the relevant urban data from 1987 to 2015,the PVAR model,the GMM,Granger causality test,im?pulse response,and other methods to study the relationship between industrialization,urbanization,and population agglomeration in Northeast China.The results show that:The increase in urbanization level has strengthened the influence of the four central cities,“Shenyang,Dalian,Changchun,and Harbin”.It is ben?eficial for the population of the whole province to gather in four central cities.Under the influence of heavy industry development model and capital-intensive investment tendencies,the increase in the level of indus?trialization is not conducive to the agglomeration of the province’s population to the four central cities.In addition,the slow marketization process and the influence of the command economy have weakened the cy?clical cumulative effect between industrialization and urbanization,resulting in weak interaction between in?dustrialization and urbanization,the duration of which is not long.In further discussion,the static panel da?ta model was used for robustness testing.The findings are consistent with the PVAR model.This article sug?gests that in the context of the loss of the Northeast population,Northeast should give full play to the econo?mies of scale and resource clustering advantages of big cities and reasonably arrange the proportion of in?dustry,improve the industrial layout,determine the development relationship between heavy industry and light industry,and promote the development of industrialization to a higher level.In addition,it is necessary to reduce the frictional cost and coordination cost between urbanization and industrialization,and realize the interactive and coordinated development of the two in order to bring the advantages of population ag?glomeration and drive the development of the Northeast regional economy.