我国核电厂“十三五”期间运行事件趋势预测分析

Research on Trend Prediction of the Nuclear Power Plants Operational Events during the 13th Five-Year Plan Period in China

核电厂发生运行事件所涉及的系统范围很广,包括仪控、电气、机械等与核安全相关的各个系统,集中反映了运行核电厂的设备缺陷、质量控制、人因失误、管理松懈等方面的问题,能够从侧面反映核电安全状况。在总结2006—2015年期间我国运行核电机组发生运行事件数量的基础上,建立了机组随时间发生运行事件的分析模型,并对我国核电厂在"十三五"期间的运行事件进行了的趋势预测分析,可为核安全监管提供参考。

Nuclear power plants operational events involved in a very wide range,including instrumentation,electrical and mechanical systems related to nuclear safety,reflects the defects of equipment and nuclear power plant operation quality control,human error,lax management and other issues,can be reflected from the side of the nuclear safety status.On the basis of summarizing the number of operational incidents of nuclear power generating units in China during 2006-2015,an analysis model of operational incidents of the generating units over time was established and the operational events of our nuclear power plants during the“13th Five-Year Plan”period Trend forecasting analysis,which can provide reference for nuclear safety regulation.