结构抗爆防护措施经济决策模型

ECONOMIC DECISION MODEL FOR BLAST RESISTANT PROTECTION MEASURES OF STRUCTURES

为给结构抗恐怖爆炸袭击防护提供经济决策支持,达到防护性能和经济性的最佳平衡,该文首先在分析土地费用及抗爆防护措施费用与安全距离之间关系的基础上,建立结构抗爆防护措施的经济决策模型。然后,基于实际工程抗爆防护措施的费用数据,采用信赖域优化算法确定了预测模型的关键参数。最后,以实际工程为例,对所建立的预测模型进行有效性验证,结果表明,所建立的预测模型可以简便、有效地进行结构抗爆防护措施的经济决策分析,从而为抗爆安全风险评估及管理决策提供依据。

To provide economic decision support for structural protection against blasting terror attacks,and to achieve the optimal balance between protection performance and cost,an economic decision model for blast-resistant protection measures of structures was established in terms of the relationship between cost of land and blast protection measures and the standoff distance.Based on practical engineering data of protection costs for anti-blasting,key parameters of the prediction model were determined by the trust-region optimization algorithm.The effectiveness of the established model was verified with novel project data.The results show that the prediction model can be used in the economic analysis for the blast resistant protection measures in a simple and effective manner,which provides evidences for blast security risk assessment and management decision.