突发事件对我国政府债务风险的影响评估:证据与展望

On Evaluating How Unexpected Shocks Affect Government Debt Risk in China:Evidence and Outlook

本文将突发事件影响纳入我国政府债务风险分析,首先通过理性预期检验、影响渠道和机制探索以及财政前瞻性管理假设前提下的简易逻辑趋势分析提供突发事件影响政府债务风险的经验性证据;据此基础在财政反应机制框架下,对预算内应对突发事件的有效财政后备进行考量,分析不同经济状态下这一财政前瞻性管理对政府债务风险的具体影响。研究结果表明,突发事件确是政府债务风险的一个影响因素,并存在财政调整渠道引致财政大幅波动,以及在金融危机类极端情形下的复杂渠道引导政府惯性预期两条路径影响政府债务风险;同时,应对突发事件的财政后备不会从根本上决定政府债务风险,并结合这一财政调整“储备渠道”尚未达到最优存量,我国目前处于“财政疲劳”特征初期的现实,政府在预算中增加投入用于突发事件的防范,尤其当经济处于非常态时将对控制政府债务风险、充分释放财政空间更具积极意义。

Considering the fact that the government debt to GDP in China is relatively low and macro-economic control mainly rely on fiscal measures recently,this paper considers the impact of unexpected shocks on the government debt risk aiming to reduce government precautionary motive and release fiscal policy space.First,using some empirical analysis to demonstrate that unexpected events do affect government debt risk,including government debt risk rational expectation test,exploration effect channels and mechanisms and simple logic analysis under a financial prospective management assumption.Then,under the framework of the fiscal reaction mechanism,we analyze the valid fiscal reserves responding to emergencies,and then give a further analysis of the specific impact on government debt risk.The results show that unexpected shocks are a factor influencing government debt risk truly,and there are two paths emergencies affect government debt risk.Specifically,one is fiscal adjustment channel which causing the fiscal volatility,and the other is a relatively complex channel,such as the financial crisis,which can lead government expectation inertial.Moreover,fiscal reserves responding to emergencies within the budgetary system do not determine the government debt risk fundamentally,and considering the reality that China is in the early stage of“fiscal fatigue”and fiscal reserves,the“reserve channel”of fiscal adjustment,has not yet reached the optimal stock,so government should increase inputs to prevent unexpected shocks which is meaningful in terms of controlling government debt risk.