“一带一路”背景下边疆基础设施的增长效应估计——以东北地区为例

The Growth Effects of Infrastructure Construction in the Border Area in China under the Background of“One Belt One Road”--Take the Northeast as an Example

从近年来国家发布的重要文件来看,如何在国家“一带一路”战略背景下建设边疆逐渐成为政界、学界十分重视的议题。本文通过使用边疆地区九省区的省级面板数据和地市级面板数据,主要探讨铁路建设与公路建设是否拉动了边疆地区的经济增长,估计结果如下。第一,铁路建设的经济效应与公路建设的经济效应存在一定替代性,20世纪90年代以后,公路的影响越来越小,而铁路的影响越来越大。第二,铁路的增长效应有明显的异质性,以京哈铁路与沈大铁路为例,京哈铁路的通车对沿线城市的经济起到促进作用,而沈大铁路的通车却对沿线城市的经济起到了负面作用。第三,影响机制。京哈铁路的通车之所以有正向影响,是因为该铁路线连通了东北地区与北京,使得两地的要素流动更加便利,且铁路通车主要是通过影响固定资产投资来促进经济的;沈大铁路的通车之所以是负面的,在于该线没有出东北区域,且该线的通车使得东北地区的人口流动性更强,可能是因为沈大铁路的通车加速了东北地区的人口流出,进而对东北地区经济起到了负面作用。本文的结论对于今后边疆铁路建设与公路建设的区位布局,有一定参考价值。

From the public documents recently released,it is an important issue that how to develop the border area in China under the background of“one belt one road”.This paper investigated the economic effects of railway and road construction to the border area in China,by using the province database and city database.The conclusions are that,(1)There exists substitution effect between railway s economic influence and road s.(2)The railway s economic influence has obvious heterogenicity,which indicates that Jingha railway s opening promotes economic growth the cities along the line whereas Shenda railway s opening restrains economic growth the cities along the line.(3)The reason why the economic influence of Jingha railway is positive,is that this railway line links Beijing which is easy to capital and population flowing.And the reason why the economic influence of Shenda railway is negative,is that all this line does not link the city outside the Dongbei area.