中国金融周期与景气循环研究

Financial Cycle and Boom-and-Bust Research of China

本文使用基于RTV-DFM合成的FCI来分析中国的金融状况,通过分析中国的金融周期与景气循环特征来把握中国金融的基本状况,并在此基础上进行预测。研究发现:本文合成的FCI很好地刻画了中国的金融状况,中国金融周期与货币政策周期高度一致;可作为金融经济变量的先行指标;预测显示中国金融状况将渐进式“走出最坏,逼近光明”。

This paper,based on FCI synthesized by RTV-DFM to analysis China s financial condition,attempted to grasp the basic financial situation through the analysis of the financial cycle and boom-and-bust characteristics of the China,and then make predictions.The study finds that FCI of this paper is a good description of China s financial condition which could be used as the leading indicator of financial economic variables,and China s financial cycle is highly consistent with the monetary policy cycle;besides,the forecast shows that China s financial condition will gradually“get out of the worst,approaching the light”.