中国经济增长成果共享性的影响因素研究

Research on the Impact Factors of Chinese Economic Growth Sharing

经济增长成果共享对经济增长质量的进一步提升具有重要作用。通过编制由社会福利、区域均质、群体均衡三个维度构成的经济增长成果共享性指数,运用马尔科夫区制转移模型,分析1978—2016年中国国家税赋、就业形势和人口结构三个方面对经济增长成果共享性的影响,结果表明:样本期内国内经济稳步提升和人民生活水平显著提高,但是不同地域和不同群体对经济成果的共享程度存在巨大差异;高区制下,改善就业形势和人口结构是提升经济增长成果共享程度的有效手段;低区制下,就业形势对经济增长成果共享影响最显著,政府可通过颁布相应政策和不同的福利制度提升共享性指数。

The sharing of economic growth plays an important role in the further improvement of the quality of economic growth.The article focuses on the impact factors in the evolution of the China's sharing of economic growth.Through the compilation of the sharing index of economic growth consisting of the three dimensions of social welfare,regional homogeneity and group equilibrium,we use the Markov regime-switching model to analyze the effects of national taxes,employment situation and demographic structure on the sharing of economic growth from 1978 to 2016.Through our research,we found that during the sample period,even though the domestic economy has been steadily improving and the people's living standards have improved significantly,there are huge differences in the sharing of economic growth between different regions and different groups.Under high regime,improving the employment situation and population structure is an effective means to improve the sharing of economic growth results.Under low regime,the employment situation has the most significant impact on the sharing of economic growth.The government can enhance the sharing index through the promulgation of policies and various welfare systems.