论贸易政策、贸易协定和贸易逆差对宏观经济影响的复杂性

On the Complexity of Trade Policy,Trade Agreement and Trade Deficit to Macroeconomics

本文探讨了贸易政策、贸易协定、贸易逆差对宏观经济的影响。研究认为,贸易协定不可能改变美国贸易逆差的总体规模,没有美国宏观经济中储蓄—投资的变化而试图改变美国贸易逆差,可能造成对其他双边逆差的抵消。在双边贸易基础上,贸易差额会受到伙伴国贸易结构、贸易商品构成等因素的影响。将贸易逆差等同于失业是不正确的,二者之间的关系存在不确定性。美元升值会使进口商品相对便宜,抵消部分进口关税的影响。

This paper explores the impact of trade policies,trade agreements,and trade deficits on the macro economy.The study argues that trade agreements are unlikely to change the overall size of the US trade deficit,and that attempts to change the US trade deficit without changes in savings-investment in the US macroeconomics may result in offsetting other bilateral deficits.On the basis of bilateral trade,the trade balance will be affected by factors such as the trade structure of the partner countries and the composition of the traded goods.It is not correct to equate the trade deficit with unemployment,and the relationship between the two is uncertain.The appreciation of the dollar will make imports relatively cheap and offset the impact of some import tariffs.