财政赤字、土地财政与房价的关系研究

Research on the Relationship between Fiscal Deficit,Land Finance and House Price Level

房价不仅是经济问题,也是社会民生问题。但在住房市场化改革以来,房价的快速上涨大大凸显了房价的经济属性,其民生属性则被极大削弱。对于房价过快增长有多种理论解释,但基于政府财政状况的实证研究证据比较缺乏。笔者沿着政府财政赤字—土地财政—房价的逻辑探究房价上涨的成因,通过使用2002—2015年277个地级市的面板数据,运用面板回归模型及门限面板回归模型的研究发现,市级政府"土地财政"规模对房价存在正向影响;在进一步考虑财政赤字的影响后,发现财政赤字水平越高、"土地财政"规模对房价的促进作用越强。对此,本文认为,当前行政调控房价的手段具有局限性。从长远来看,理顺政府间的财政分配关系,将财税体制改革与住房制度和土地供应制度结合起来,是建立房价调控长效机制的重要基础。

Housing price is not only an economic issue,but also a social livelihood issue.However,since the reform of the housing market,the rapid rise of housing prices has greatly highlighted the economic attributes of housing prices,and its livelihood attributes have been greatly weakened.There are many theoretical explanations for the excessive growth of housing prices,but empirical evidence based on the financial situation of the government is relatively insufficient.According to the logic of government fiscal deficit-land finance-housing price,the author explores the causes of housing price rise.By using panel data of 277 prefecture-level cities from 2002 to 2015 and using panel regression model and panel threshold regression model,the author finds that“land finance”scale of municipal government has a positive impact on housing price.After further consideration of the impact of fiscal deficits,it is found that the higher the fiscal deficit,the stronger the promoting effect of the scale of“land finance”on housing prices.In this regard,this paper believes that the current administrative control of housing price have limitations.In the long run,it is an important basis for establishing a long-term mechanism of housing price regulation to straighten out the fiscal distribution relationship between governments and combine the fiscal and taxation system reform with the housing system and land supply system.