信贷约束、房价与经济增长关联性及空间溢出效应--基于省域面板数据的空间计量

Research on the Relevance and Spatial Spillover Effects of Credit Constraints,House Prices and Economic Growth: Evidence from Provincial Panel Data Based on Spatial Econometric Analysis

笔者建立五种信贷约束指标,综合考虑房价及溢出效应因素,选取2005年至2016年的省域面板数据为样本,分析了空间相依性和聚集性特征,考虑地理距离、经济距离及非对称因素,构建五种不同权重矩阵,采用空间面板模型进行估计,确定不同因素、不同权重下的最优空间计量模型。研究结果表明:区域经济发展在空间上存在显著的正相关关系,且空间依赖性对经济发展起到显著的促进作用;不同模型和权重下空间溢出效应系数的方向和显著性具有一致性,综合考虑地理距离、经济距离及非对称影响因素的空间权重效果最好;广义信贷约束及狭义信贷约束均与经济增长之间无显著的影响关系;信贷约束结构中,短期信贷与经济增长呈显著的负相关关系,中长期信贷与经济增长无显著的影响关系;房价对经济增长具有显著的正向促进作用。

Establishing five kinds of credit constraint indicators,comprehensively considering the factors of house prices and spillovers,this paper analyzes the spatial dependence and clustering characteristics by provincial panel data from 2005 to 2016.Considering geographic distances,economic distance and asymmetric factors,this paper constructs five different weight matrixes,uses spatial panel models,and chooses the optimal spatial econometric models.The results show that(1)there is significant positive correlation in the regional economic development and the spatial dependence plays a significant role in promoting the economic development;(2)the direction and significance of spatial spillover effects are consistent under different models and weights,and the spatial weight which considers the factors of geographical distance,economic distance and asymmetric factors is the best;(3)generalized and narrowly constrained credits have no significant effect on regional economic growth;in the credit constraint structure,short-term credits have a significant negative correlation with economic growth,while medium-term and long-term credits have no significant correlation with economic growth;(4)house prices have a significant positive effect on economic growth.