基于DEA-Malmquist模型的中部城市群旅游产业效率评价研究

A Study on the Efficiency Evaluation of Tourism Industry of Urban Agglomeration in Central China: Based on DEA-Malmquist Model

以我国中部地区的晋中、江淮、环鄱阳湖、中原、武汉和长株潭六大城市群为研究对象,基于2005—2015年旅游面板数据,采用DEA和Malmquist指数测算这六大城市群的旅游产业效率。研究结果表明:(1) 2005—2015年中部城市群旅游产业年均技术效率为0. 712,存在很大的发展空间,且总体呈波动下降状态。(2)中部城市群的旅游产业全要素生产率平均每年以13. 8%的速度增长,且技术进步是全要素生产率增长的主要因素,但技术进步并没有引起技术效率的显著提高,中部城市群旅游产业迫切需要转型升级。(3)通过空间聚类分析发现,中部城市群旅游产业技术效率和纯技术效率在空间上均呈现南北高、中间低的地域分布特征,且纯技术效率是影响技术效率的主要因素,同时中部城市群旅游产业规模效率普遍较高。(4)通过对全要素生产率变化率的分解可以看出,晋中、中原、武汉、长株潭城市群旅游产业纯技术效率变化指数和规模效率变化指数低下是造成中部城市群技术效率总体走下坡路的主要原因。从全要素生产率增长来看,中部城市群中旅游发展落后地区存在后发优势,它们能高效模仿先进地区技术,完成自身发展,但中部城市群中旅游发展相对先进的区域旅游发展速度则较慢。

Taking Jinzhong,Jianghuai,Central Poyang Lake,Central Plains,Wuhan and Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan in Central China as objects,this paper used the panel tourism data from 2005 to 2015 based on DEA-Malmquist model,and analyzed the techinical efficiency of tourism industry in the six urban agglomerations.The results indicate:(1)from 2005 to 2015 the comprehensive efficiency of tourism industry of the six urban agglomeration in central China,totally tending to decline,is 0.712 with great potentials for development;(2)total factor productivity(TFP)grows at an annual rate of 13.8%,and the technological progress is the main drive of TFP growth,while the technological progress don’t contribute to the raise of technological efficiency,which means that the tourism structure of urban agglomeration in central China needs to be upgraded;(3)through a spatial clustering analysis,it is found that the comprehensive efficiency and pure technical efficiency of urban agglomeration in central China is characterized by high-value in the south and north and low-value in the central part,and the technical efficiency is the main factor restricting the progress of the comprehensive efficiency of urban agglomeration in central China,and the agglomeration degree of tourism scale of the case in point is high;(4)a decomposition of variance ratio of TFP shows that low rate of pure technical and scale efficiency changes in Jinzhong,Central Plains,Wuhan,Chang-Zhu-Tan city group is the main reason for the decline of the comprehensive efficiency of urban agglomeration in central China.From TFP growth,the underdeveloped areas in tourism enjoy a second-mover advantage because they can better model themselves on the first-mover areas efficiently in technology to complete their own development but forwarding at a speed lower than the first-movers.