我国农产品贸易格局及合理进口规模分析

Analysis on the Trade Situation and Reasonable Import Scale of China's Agricultural Products

准确分析我国农产品贸易形势,科学把握农产品进口合理规模,对贯彻落实党中央、国务院提出的农业统筹利用两个市场两种资源重大战略部署具有重要意义。本文分析了入世后我国农产品贸易总体格局的变化及驱动因素,分品种、分市场探讨了我国大宗农产品贸易的态势。以小麦、稻谷、玉米、棉花、食糖、大豆、食用植物油、猪肉、牛肉、羊肉、禽肉和水产品等重要农产品为研究对象,测算2025年、2030年我国农产品合理进口规模,提出了立足国内确保粮食和大宗农产品基本供给、采取积极主动的进口战略、完善国际农产品市场监测和进口预警机制、推动农业"走出去"的政策建议。

To fully utilize both domestic and overseas markets and resources,which was put forward by the Party Central Committee and the State Council,it’s of great significance to accurately analyze the trade situation of agricultural products in China and scientifically grasp the reasonable scale of the import of agricultural products.This paper analyzes the general situation changes and driving factors of China’s agricultural products trade after China’s entry into WTO,and probes into the current situation of China’s major agricultural products trade in terms of varieties and markets.Furthermore,we estimates the reasonable import scale of major agricultural products in 2025 and 2030,such as wheat,rice,corn,cotton,sugar,soybean,vegetable oil,pork,beef,mutton,poultry meat,and aquatic products.Policy proposals of ensuring the basic supply of grain and bulk agricultural products at home,adopting active import strategy,improving the international agricultural product market monitoring and import early-warning mechanism,and promoting the“going global”strategy of agriculture are put forward.