基于多层次模糊综合评判法的南宁市水资源承载能力现状评价

Multi-hierarchy fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method-based evaluation on status of water resources carrying capacity in Nanning

为科学合理评价南宁市水资源承载能力,并为制定合理的水资源开发利用管控措施提供参考依据,首先根据水利部现行评价方法对南宁市2015年水资源承载能力现状进行了初步评价,针对此方法的不足,细化评价指标,利用层次分析法确定15个比例关系评价指标的权重,构造隶属度函数进行多层次模糊综合评价。初评结果南宁市整体处于临界状态,5个县区处于临界状态,2个处于不超载状态;综合评价结果南宁市整体处于不超载状态,2个县区处于临界状态,5个县区处于不超载状态。由此结果进行分析可得结论:多层次模糊综合评价结果可根据模糊综合评分值有效区分同等级下各个县的承载情况,更能全面反映南宁市水资源承载状况,具有较强的区域适用性和广泛性,同时可为南宁市不同县区的水资源开发提供参考依据。

In order to scientifically and reasonably evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Nanning City and provide a referential basis for making reasonable measures of development,utilization,management and control of water resources,the status of the water resources carrying capacity of Nanning City in 2015 is preliminarily evaluated in accordance with the current relevant evaluation method issued by the Ministry of Water Resources at first.Moreover,aiming at the insufficiencies of the method,the evaluation indexes are refined,for which the weights of the evaluation indexes for 15 proportional relationships are determined with analytic hierarchy process(AHP)for constructing the membership functions to carry out the multi-hierarchy fuzzy comprehensive evaluation concerned.The preliminary evaluation result shows that Nanning City is wholly in a critical state,in which five counties and districts are in critical state and 2 counties and districts are in non-overloading state,while the comprehensive evaluation result exhibits that Nanning City is wholly in a non-overloading state,in which 2 counties and districts are in critical state and five counties and districts are in non-overloading state.From the analysis made on this result,it is concluded that the result from the multi-hierarchy fuzzy comprehensive evaluation can effectively distinguish the water resources carrying situations of all the counties under the same level according to the evaluating values from the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,thus can more fully reflect the water resources carrying status of Nanning City and has stronger regional applicability and universality,meanwhile,can provide referential basis for the water resources development of different counties and districts of Nanning City as well.