基于引力模型的中国木质林产品进出口影响因素研究及贸易潜力测算

Study on Factors Affecting Import and Export of Chinese Woody Forest Products and Estimation of Trade Potential Based on Gravity Model

采用2002—2015年中国木质林产品的进出口贸易数据分别构建拓展的中国木质林产品的进口贸易引力模型和出口贸易引力模型,从而对中国木质林产品进出口贸易影响因素和贸易潜力进行探究和测算。结果表明:经济规模、人口、距离、森林资源差异、森林认证面积、汇率以及同属于APEC成员、签署自由贸易协定等因素对中国木质产品进口贸易具有显著影响;经济规模、人口、距离、森林资源差异、汇率以及同属于APEC成员、签署自由贸易协定、毗邻等因素对中国木质产品出口贸易具有显著影响;中国对美国、加拿大等重要贸易伙伴存在"过度贸易",对韩国、日本等存在"贸易不足"。因此,中国应以要素禀赋互补性为基础发展木质林产品贸易,积极开展木材合法性认证以应对木质林产品贸易壁垒,加强贸易便利化建设与金融服务;通过多种渠道建立和深化区域合作机制,促进与其他国家的贸易自由化进程,强化质量、提倡创新,促进木质林产品出口贸易健康、持续发展。

Results--The regression results of the import trade gravity model show that the economic scale,the population,the distance,the difference in forest resources,the area of forest certification,the exchange rate,the same members belonging to the APEC,the signing of the free trade agreement and other factors have significant impacts on the import trade of Chinese woody forest products.The regression results of the export trade gravity model show that the economic scale,the population,the distance,the difference in forest resources,the exchange rate,the same members belonging to the APEC,the signing of the free trade agreement,country border and other factors have significant impacts on the export trade of Chinese woody forest products.On this basis,the calculated potential indexes of import and export trade of Chinese woody forest products identify the types of market development of import and export trade of Chinese woody forest products,and show that China has“excessive trade”to some important trading partners such as the United States and Canada and has“insufficient trade”to countries such as South Korea and Japan in the trade of Chinese woody forest products.Background--As the largest producer and trader of woody forest products in the world,it is of great practical significance for the sustainable development of Chinese woody forest products trade and the optimization and upgrading of forestry industry to explore and identify the key factors affecting import and export of Chinese woody forest products and to calculate the potential of import and export.Methods--By introducing the variables closely related to the trade of woody forest products,such as the difference in forest resources and so on,this paper makes extended trade gravity model of import and export trade of Chinese woody forest products.Based on the import and export trade data between China and its major trading partners of woody forest products from 2002 to 2015,and other relevant data,the factors affecting the import and export trade of woody forest products in China are investigated by using the Pooled Generalized Least Squares(Pooled EGLS)regression method.Then the paper measures the import and export potential of China and its major trading partners of woody forest products.Conclusions and Discussions--The factors affecting the import and export trade of Chinese woody forest products,include both common basic factors and special factors,and their influences are related to the characteristics of woody forest products and the market structure and product structure of import and export trade of Chinese woody forest products.China still has great potential for importing woody forest products from 8 countries including Australia,South Korea,Malaysia,Mexico and Japan.It still has great export potential of woody forest products to 12 countries including Korea,Japan,Italy,Germany,Russia and France.Special attention should be paid to these potential markets,which is the key to further expand the import and export scale of Chinese woody forest products.For the traditional markets such as the United States and Canada,the scale of import and export trade is generally relatively large.While maintaining the existing positive factors to ensure sustained and stable development,we should cultivate new factors to develop new trade potential.At the same time,we should not neglect the development of import markets such as Sweden,France,Britain and other traditional industrial countries and the development of export markets such as Brazil,Mexico,Chile,India,Vietnam and other developing countries and make it a new growth point for Chinese woody forest products trade.China should develop trade of woody forest products on the basis of factor endowment complementarity,actively carry out the certification of wood legitimacy in response to trade barriers to woody forest products,strengthen trade facilitation construction and financial services,establish and deepen regional cooperation mechanisms through various channels,promote the process of trade liberalization with other countries,strengthen quality,encourage innovation,and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the export of woody forest products.