中国与“一带一路”沿线国家木质林产品贸易潜力研究

Study on the Trade Potential of Woody Forest Products between China and Countries along the “Belt and Road”

利用2007—2016年中国与"一带一路"沿线国家的贸易数据,采用贸易结合度、互补性指数分别从出口、进口两个方面研究中国与"一带一路"沿线72个国家在6类木质林产品上的贸易联系紧密性及互补性,重点找出具有贸易潜力的地区、国家及产品。研究表明:中国木质林产品的贸易市场与贸易潜力市场分布不相符;中国具有贸易潜力的出口木质林产品主要是人造板、家具,而进口产品主要是原木、锯材、木浆;"一带一路"多数国家属于"潜力开拓型",各国具有进出口贸易潜力的木质林产品差异较大。因此,应合理科学规划,与重点地区、国家在重点产品上开展贸易合作,挖掘贸易潜力。

Background--The forest resources in countries along the“Belt and Road”such as Russia and India are well stocked.The demand for woody forest products is strong but the manufacturing industry is weak such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates,complementing with China s woody forest products industry.It can be the target market for China s woody forest products trade.It is of practical significance to find out the countries and products with trade potential between China and areas along the“Belt and Road”and study which countries have trade potential in which types of woody forest products for more targeted development of trade cooperation in woody forest products.Methods--The degree of trade integration can reflect the closeness of trade links,and the complementarity index refers to the degree of conformity between one country s export products and another country s import products.The criteria for trade potential are:product complementarity index is more than 1,and trade combination degree is less than 1.According to the woody forest products trade data sorted out from the United Nations Trade Database between China and 72 countries along the“Belt and Road”from 2007 to 2016,the degree of trade integration and complementarity index are applied to study the potential of import and export trade of woody forest products between China and countries along the“Belt and Road”.Results--The complementarity index and the degree of trade integration of China s imports of woody forest products from countries along the“Belt and Road”are 1.7 and 0.8 respectively in the 10 years,indicating that import trade has greater trade potential.In terms of export,areas with strong complementarity and loose trade links to China s products include Central Asia,Central and Eastern Europe,Southeast and North Africa,and the Commonwealth of Independent States;in terms of import,areas with strong complementarity and loose trade links to China s products include Central and Eastern Europe,Southeast and North Africa,Southeast Asia,which shows that China has potential for import and export trade in these regions.In terms of export and import,countries with strong product complementarity and loose trade links account for 47.2%and 43.1%respectively.The trade of forest products between China and these countries is still at a stage of development.The importing countries along the“Belt and Road”with strong complementarity but loose trade links of artificial boards and furniture account for 45.8%and 44.4%respectively.The exporting countries along the“Belt and Road”with strong complementarity but loose trade links of logs,sawn timber and wood pulp account for 30.6%,29.2%and 30.6%respectively.Woody forest products with potential for import and export trade between China and different countries are quite different.Products with trade potential in these countries should be the focus of China s trade.Conclusions and Discussions--There are weaker competition and strong complementarity in trade of woody forest products between China and countries along the“Belt and Road”,and trade prospects are broad;the distribution of trade market and trade potential market is not consistent;the trade potential products exported by China to areas along the“Belt and Road”are mainly labor-intensive woody forest products,while the imported trade potential products are mainly resource-intensive woody forest products.Most countries along the“Belt and Road”are the potential developing counties with great development space.Therefore,China should rationally plan trade targets and conduct trade cooperation with key regions,countries and products,improve the trade environment of forest products and establish a forestry industry cooperation system,develop superior products,broaden sources of disadvantaged products,promote forest products trade.