长江经济带林业经济增长、产业结构演变及其差异分析

Analysis on the Differences of the Forest Economic Growth and Industrial Structure Evolution in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China

以长江经济带11个省(市) 2001—2015年林业产值数据为基础,利用动态偏离-份额分析法,探索该区域林业经济增长和产业结构演变规律,并对其林业经济差异进行分析。结果表明:长江经济带林业经济增长速度同比高于全国林业经济增长速度;各省(市)的林业第一产业增长速度低于长江经济带且不占竞争优势、林业第二产业结构素质要高于该区域平均水平、林业第三产业增长情况及结构素质高于区域水平;重庆、贵州、上海、云南为小份额区、林业第一产业相对优势区,江苏、浙江为大份额区、第二产业优势区,湖北、湖南、四川、江西、安徽中等份额、均衡发展区域。

Background--In September 2014,the State Council promulgated The Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt by Relying on Golden Waterways,and it clarified that the Yangtze River Economic Belt includes 11 Provinces&municipalities,covering Shanghai,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Anhui,Jiangxi,Hubei,Hunan,Chongqing,Sichuan,Yunnan and Guizhou.In September 2016,the policy documents such as the Outline for the Development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt took the Yangtze River Economic Belt as a new area for country s open development strategy,and further clarified the scope of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and carried out a systematic and comprehensive strategic deployment.Methods--The relevant data of the forestry industry come from the Chinese Forestry Statistical Yearbook 2001-2015,and the statistical annual reports of provinces and cities in the study area.Taking the national forestry industry as a reference and the forestry industry of the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research object,the dynamic shift-share analysis method(DSSA)is used to analyze the forestry economic growth and the evolution trend of the industrial structure in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.On the basis of this study,taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as a reference,11 provinces(municipalities)in the economic belt as the research samples are analyzed and explored.Results--The growth rate of the forestry industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is higher than that of the national forestry;the growth rate of forestry primary industry in each province(municipalities)is lower than that in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and does not occupy a competitive advantage;the quality of forestry secondary industrial structure is higher than the regional average;the growth and structural quality of forestry tertiary industry are higher than the regional level;according to the factors analysis of the output value of forestry industry,the dynamic deviation of the three industrial structures,and the provincial and municipal forestry economic growth rate and contribution rate,the 11 provinces(municipalities)are clustered and divided into 3 development types:Chongqing,Guizhou,Shanghai and Yunnan are the dominant areas of forestry primary industry and their total forestry economic amount is small;Jiangsu and Zhejiang are the dominant areas of second industry and their total forestry economic amount is large;Hubei,Hunan,Sichuan,Jiangxi and Anhui are the balanced development areas and have the moderate total economic amount.Conclusions and Discussions--We should give full play to the resource endowment advantages of the forestry industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,optimize the industrial structure,and develop forestry primary industries including forestry breeding,management and protection,afforestation and renewal,and economic forest products and flower planting,and implement relevant forestry policies.The development of forestry secondary industry,including wood processing and manufacturing and non-wood forest products processing and manufacturing,should be retained or even restricted.At the same time,we should promote and encourage the development of forestry tertiary industry,including forestry tourism leisure services,ecological services and other forestry tertiary industries to promote the integration and development of forestry primary industry and tertiary industry.To promote the formation of regional and time complementarity of forestry economy in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,11 provinces and municipalities should make full use of their forestry resources advantages,pay attention to the economic complementarity of forestry industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,internalize the external economy and enhance the overall development momentum.