试析蔡英文对两岸关系的错误知觉--政治心理学的视角

An Analysis of Tsai ing-wen's Misconception on Cross-Strait Relations——Based on the Perspective of Political Psychology

蔡英文就任台湾地区领导人以来,由于拒不承认"九二共识"及其核心意涵,推行"隐性台独"、"联美日抗大陆"等政策,使得两岸关系和平发展面临严峻挑战。长期以来,我们对台湾政治势力及人物的考察大多基于"理性人"假设,忽略了决策者心理的个体性和复杂性。本文尝试从政治心理学这一微观视角,分析蔡英文对两岸关系的某些错误知觉及其形成原因,发现认知失调、诱发定势、历史类比、情感动机和性格特质等都是蔡英文产生错误知觉的重要因素,进而影响了其对两岸关系的认知和决策。

Since Tsai Ing-wen became the leader of Taiwan,she has been refusing to recognize the"1992 consensus"and its core connotation.Meanwhile she implement the policy of“invisible independence”and“Worship U.S Pro Japan”,therefore the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations is facing severe challenges.For a long time,our investigation of Taiwan's political forces and characters is based on the assumption of"rational man",ignoring the individuality and complexity of the decision makers.Based on a microcosmic perspective of political psychology,this paper attempts to analyze Tsai Ing-wen’s misconceptions of cross-Strait Relations and tries to find out the causes.It is found that there are a number of factors caused the incorrect perception,cognitive dissonance,evoked set,historical analogy,emotional motivation and personality traits are all included,and all these factors have influenced Tsai Ing-wen’s cognition and decision on cross-Strait Relations.