中国高铁出行的环境健康影响分析

Analysis of the Impact of High-speed Rail Travel on China's Environment Health

本文旨在对中国各城市高铁出行情况与人群环境健康影响进行大数据分析。文中的环境健康影响指将高铁出行过境次数引入经典泊松回归模型,进而直接得到各城市人群环境健康受到高铁出行的影响。另外,为了更好地分析高铁出行下的人群环境影响,笔者在计算环境影响指数时将受影响人群分为高铁沿线城市本地人群(PED)和过境人群(TPED)。最后总结分析了全国范围内环境健康受过境次数影响的程度大小。通过计算结果可得,华北、华中、四川盆地等地区的大城市,人口多、过境车次多、空气质量相对较差,PED和TPED值较高。华中、华南、西南边境地区城市的空气质量较好,PED和TPED值较低。另外,就特定高铁线路的环境健康影响而言,京津、郑西高铁沿线的PED和TPED值较高;广深、合福、沪昆高铁沿线的PED和TPED值较低。

This article aims to quantitatively analyze the impact of high-speed rail travel on human environmental health in Chinese cities,based on classical Poisson Model introducing factor representing cities’high-speed rail travel conditions(daily high-speed rail transits volume).In addition,the author divides the affected people into the local population and transit population along high-speed railways,and the environmental impact index includes the atmospheric environmental health index of the local population(PED)and that of the transit population(TPED).Results show that,large cities in North China,Central China,and Sichuan Basin region have a large population,more transit trips,relatively poor air quality,and higher PED and TPED values.Air quality of cities in Central China,South China,and southwestern border region is good,with lower PED and TPED values.Finally,the PED and TPED values of the high-speed rail along the Beijing-Tianjin and Zhengzhou-Xi’an railway are higher for the environmental health impact of specific high-speed rail lines;the PED and TPED values along the Guangzhou-Shenzhen and Hefei-Fuzhou high-speed railway are lower.The comprehensive analysis shows that air quality is the most important factor affecting the health of urban air environment.While cities are strengthening the infrastructure construction and optimizing urban layout,the improvement of air quality is an important measure to improve the city’s soft power.