居民消费结构在城镇化与产业结构优化中的传导作用

On the Conduction Effect of Residents' Consumption Structure in Urbanization and Industrial Structure Optimization

厘清城镇化、居民消费结构和产业结构优化三者关系及其在我国不同区域的现实表现,对于有的放矢地制定经济政策具有重要意义。城镇化既直接影响产业结构优化,也以居民消费结构为中介间接影响产业结构优化,而后一种情形的研究尚未得到应有的重视。本文利用我国2005～2016年31个省级面板数据,分全国和区域层面进行居民消费结构中介效应检验,得到以下结论:全国层面和区域层面的中介效应均成立,但在东、中、西部,中介效应的大小和传导路径不同;经济越发达或越不发达,城镇化对产业结构优化的促进作用越大;经济发展水平越高,城镇居民消费结构的中介效应越强;经济发展水平越低,农村居民消费结构的中介效应越强。由此可认为,现阶段符合区域特征的差异化区域政策应从以下方面展开:东部地区应以促进居民消费结构升级为主线,中部地区应以乡村振兴为重点,西部地区则应以精准脱贫为突破口。

It is significant for formulating economic policies to clarify the relationship between urbanization,residents’consumption structure and industrial structure optimization,and their actual performance in different regions of China.This result shows that urbanization not only directly affects the industrial structure optimization,but also indirectly affects it through the intermediary of residents’consumption structure,and the study of the latter case has not received due attention.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2005 to 2016,testing the mediating effect at national and regional levels and we can safely draw the following conclusion:The mediating effect of residents’consumption structure is established at the national level and the regional level,but it has different transmission paths in different regions.In more and less developed regions,urbanization plays an important role in promoting the optimization of industrial structure.The higher the level of economic development,the stronger the mediating effect urban residents’consumption structure.The lower the level of economic development,the stronger the mediating effect of the rural residents’consumption structure.These conclusions constitute the main innovation points of this paper.Based on these conclusions,this paper argues that the differentiated industrial policies with regional characteristics should be carried out from the following aspects:the eastern region takes promoting the upgrading of residents’consumption structure as the main line,the central region takes coordinating urban-rural coordination and rural revitalization as the key point,while the western region should take targeted poverty alleviation as the breakthrough point.