基于熵权Topsis的淮河生态经济带水资源承载力评价

THE ASSESSMENT ON WATER RESOURCES CAPACITY IN HUAIHE ECO-ECONOMIC BELT BASED ON ENTROPY WEIGHT AND TOPSIS METHOD

[目的]评价发展规划驱动下的水资源承载力特征,为区域发展提供科学依据。[方法]以淮河生态经济带为对象,采用熵权重的Topsis评价方法,分析淮河生态经济带水资源承载力的区域差异及其影响因素。[结果] 2015年不同市县水资源承载力综合得分介于0. 305 8～0. 698 8之间,其中盐城市最高,桐柏县最低;境内江苏、安徽、河南3省的水资源承载力分别为0. 585 2、0. 478 2、0. 524 9。[结论](1)淮河生态经济带水资源承载力具有在淮河干流上、下游承载力高,但中游偏低的空间分布特征。(2)水资源系统层面,水资源总量是承载力高低的供给侧决定性因素,是水资源承载力高低的重要基础。(3)社会系统中,用水量与用水结构是提升和优化水资源承载力的调控性因素。(4)城镇化发展与人口增加是水资源承载力高低的胁迫性因素,而经济发展水平是水资源承载力调控的重要保证。

Water Resource Capacity(WRC)assessment plays an important role in the implement of the planning.Therefore WRC assessment and its main factors were conducted in the Huaihe Eco-economic Belt(HEB)based on the entropy weight and the Topsis method.The results showed that the WRC value of the year 2015 varied from 0.3058 to 0.6988,where Yancheng had the highest WRC while Tongbai was the lowest.The WRC values of Jiangsu,Anhui and Henan were 0.5852,0.4782 and 0.5249 respectively.Conclusions could be drawn as(1)WRC had a relatively larger spatial variation in the HEB.A spatial variation that the high WRC appeared in the upper and the lower reaches of the main stream of the Huaihe River while the lower WRC occurred in the middle reach of the main stream of the Huaihe River.(2)The total amount of the water resources was the fundamental and the determining factor for the WRC on the aspect of the water resource supply system.(3)Water consumption and its structure were the factors for the regulation and control of the WRC.(4)Urbanization and the population increase were the stressing factors of the WRC,while the economic development level had a high capacity to regulate and control the WRC.The area differentiation and the influencing factors of the WRC may be of great help for the scientific use of water resource in the view of planning driven development.