历史的逻辑与欧洲的未来

The Logic of History and the Future of Europe

欧洲正在遭受多重危机。危机之所以呈现多重性,源于欧洲历史上帝国、基督教、民族国家、资本主义等多条历史线索的并存与缠斗。这些线索长期存在于"欧洲历史老人"体内,其演进及彼此间的相生相克,是欧洲历史的推动力量。自古希腊以来,欧洲经历了帝国、基督教、民族国家三大范式。第二次世界大战后,欧洲发展出了一条新的历史线索——"共同体"线索。"共同体"能否成为欧洲历史的第四大范式,取决于其在多条历史线索的缠斗中能否适应并最终获胜。受多线索震荡的影响,主权债务危机以来的欧洲呈现"多维度不均衡"状态,正走向新的历史合体。第一阶段将走向"欧洲堡垒",对内继续推行经济一体化,对外实施重商主义和有限扩张,吸纳西巴尔干诸国入盟。第二阶段可能走向"欧洲帝国",内部出现等级制,对外与美国共筑"跨大西洋帝国共同体",并大幅对外扩张。

Europe is now suffering from multiple crises,the origin of which can be traced back to the coexistence and entangling of the multiple historical processes of empire,Christianity,na-tion-state and capitalism in the European history.These processes have long existed in Eu-rope,facilitating as well as fighting with each other,and become the drivers of the Europe-an history.Since Ancient Greece,Europe has undergone mainly three historical paradigms,namely empire,Christendom and nation-state.After the Second World War,Europe has developed a new historical process,that is,the“community”.Whether community will be-come the fourth historical paradigm in the European history depends on whether it could stand out in the tangling of all the historical processes.Under the shock of these multiple processes,Europe has been showing a status of“multi-dimensional imbalance”since the Euro crisis,and is heading towards a restructuring of these processes.In the first phase,it will become a“fortress Europe”,pushing forward further economic integration domestically while exercising mercantilism and moderate expansion externally and absorbing the western Balkans.While in the second phase,it might probably be transformed into a“European empire”,characterized with the emergence of an internal hierarchy and a“Trans-Atlantic Empire Community”externally in cooperation with the U.S.,and expand on a relatively large scale.