基于VAR模型的湖南武陵山片区旅游产业生态效率影响因素分析

Analysis of influencing factors on eco-efficiency of tourism industry in Hunan Wuling mountain based on VAR model

环境影响效益与旅游经济的"帕累托最优"是旅游产业追求的理想目标。通过测算湖南武陵山片区旅游产业生态效率,对其4地市的旅游产业生态效率演化过程进行分析,借助向量自回归模型,利用Eviews 8.0进行处理,探讨该区域旅游产业生态效率的演化过程及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)湖南武陵山片区4个分地市旅游产业生态效率水平均有不同程度的提高趋势,但存在一定地区差异。(2)技术效应对旅游产业生态效率的冲击值在滞后期前3期迅速增加,小幅度下降至第5期后呈现稳步上升状态。旅游产业生态效率对结构效应的响应值在滞后期5期由负转变为正,在10期达到正向最大。而规模效应对旅游产业生态效率的冲击均为正值,3期达到正向最大后逐渐趋于稳定状态。(3)技术效应、结构效应以及规模效应对旅游产业生态效率的贡献率均以不同程度的趋势逐渐增加,结构效应贡献率最大稳定在12%左右。

“Pareto optimal”of the environmental impact and economic benefits of tourism is the goal of the tourism industry.The study analyzed the ecological efficiency of tourism industry in four cities by measuring the ecological efficiency of tourism industry in wuling mountainous areas of Hunan province.This study explores the evolutionary process of eco-efficiency of tourism industry and its influencing factors by means of vector autoregressive model through Eviews 8.0.The results show:①The eco-efficiency level of tourism industry in four cities in Wuling Mountain area of Hunan Province has a trend of increasing in different degree,but there are some regional differences.②The impact of technology effect on the eco-efficiency of tourism industry increased rapidly in the first 3 period of lag period,and the small extent fell to the 5th period.The response value of eco-efficiency of tourism industry to structural effect is positive from negative to 5 in the period of lag period,and it reaches the maximum in 10.And the impact of scale effect on the eco-efficiency of tourism industry is positive,it tends to stabilize after reaching the maximum value in 3 period.③The contribution rate of technology effect,structure effect and scale effect to the eco-efficiency of tourism industry is increasing with different degree.The contribution rate of structural effect is maximum stable at about 12%.