城镇化、劳动者报酬与居民消费率——兼论城镇化进程中的居民消费率“U型”趋势

Urbanization,Labor's Share and Residents Consumption Rate

本文首先对城镇化、劳动者报酬与居民消费率之间的关系提出系列理论假说,接着利用中国1978-2015年的时序数据实证检验了城镇化、劳动者报酬与居民消费率的内在逻辑关系。得到如下研究结论:劳动者报酬是影响中国居民消费率的重要因素,两者呈现显著的正相关关系;城镇化进程是影响中国居民消费率的另一个重要因素,城镇化进程对居民消费率的影响呈现先下降、后上升的"U型"影响,当前城镇化进程对居民消费率的影响是正向的,由此,推进新型城镇化进程应成为中国需求动力结构改善的重要内容。本文的实证研究也证实了劳动者报酬在城镇化对居民消费率的影响中起到了一定程度上的中介作用。

This paper put forward series theoretical hypothesis on the urbanization,the labor’s share and the residents consumption rate,and then use the 1978-2015 time-series data in China to empirically test the relationship between the urbanization,the labor’s share and the residents consumption rate.The result of research shows that the labor’s share is an important factor affecting the consumption rate,they are positively correlated.The urbanization is another important factor to influence Chinese residents consumption rate,the impact of urbanization on the consumption rate is u-shaped,the current urbanization is conducive to the improvement of the consumption rate.The empirical research in this paper also confirms that the labor’s share plays an intermediary role in the effect of urbanization on the consumption rate.