中国经济结构转型的进展与差距

China's Economic Restructuring:Development and Gap

通过与发达经济体结构转型轨迹进行比对,本文从产业和支出两个维度考察了中国经济结构转型取得的进展与存在的不足。中国经济在2010-2012年间迈过了工业化高峰期,此后逐步由制造业转向服务业。工业化高峰期后人力资本密集型服务业迎来了高速增长;投入、生产、产品多维度证据显示制造业整体升级步伐较快。消费、投资、出口的"三驾马车"结构趋于平衡。上述这些结构变化与发达经济体走过的历史轨迹高度吻合,表明中国仍在迈向更高收入水平的正常轨道上。差距主要表现在第二、三产业就业占比偏低;政府服务占比偏低;城市化率偏低等。这些对比说明中国在产业发展、公共服务和城市化之间存在不平衡,后两者落后于前者并形成了经济发展短板,弥补这些短板需要推动"从发展到服务"的政府职能转型。

This article reviews the progress of China’s economic transformation and compares it with high-income economies at a similar stage of development.China's economic activity has been shifting from manufacturing to services since 2010–2012.After this peak of industrialization,the upgrading of its manufacturing has accelerated,as reflected by inputs,production and products;human–capital intensive services has grown at a fast pace in the post-industrialization era,and consumption,investment and exports have become more balanced.The trajectory of those structural changes is consistent with that of high-income economies at a similar stage of development,indicating that China is on track towards a higher-income development.The gap mainly lies in the lower ratio of employment in the secondary and tertiary industries;the share of government services as a percentage of GDP and the urbanization rate are also quite low,indicating that the development of the country’s industrial development,public service and urbanization is unbalanced.To close the gap,government functions should shift from being development-oriented to service-oriented.