美元体系的金融逻辑与权力——中美贸易争端的货币金融背景及其思考

Financial Rationale and Power of the Dollar System:Monetary and Financial Background of the Sino-US Trade Disputes

中美贸易争端的爆发不仅暴露出中国的美国认知存在着一系列问题,也使人思考特朗普恣意妄为的"美国优先"行为的深层次背景。本文认为,美国现阶段与他国的争端尤其是与中国的贸易争端有着强大的金融和货币优势支撑。长期以来"美国衰落论"仅热衷于关注美国衰落的话题本身,而对其经济结构变化以及由此产生的政治、经济影响尤其是美国核心利益的变化熟视无睹。1970年代以来美国经济结构的日益金融化产生了两个重要的国际影响:一是美元体系的形成与强化,二是以美国科技创新与制造业产业转移为代表的全球产业链的形成与发展。这是特朗普发动贸易保护主义行动的重要背景或者保障。其中,美元体系的形成与发展是20世纪世界经济最为核心的变化,使得美国构建了一个与以往霸权国家全然不同的世界控制体系,对世界的剥削与控制不仅更加隐秘,重要的是还更改了人类长久以来的金融逻辑,即将"债权人逻辑"更改为"债务人逻辑"。此乃当今美国所有国际经济行为的重要基础。"债务人逻辑"的实施主要是依靠美元体系来实现的,该体系的核心利益就在于,维护一个允许它可以坚守"债务人逻辑"、大量举债而不受其他任何国家约束的国际货币秩序。本文在探讨美元体系的金融逻辑与运行机制的基础上,分析了其本质与全球性权力,并提出了中国应对中美贸易争端与未来发展的总体战略。

The Sino-US trade disputes not only expose our misunderstanding of the United States,but prompt us to think about the deep-level background of the Trump administration’s willful"America First"behavior.This article argues that the current disputes between the United States and the rest of the world,especially the trade disputes with China,are built on the country’s strong financial and monetary advantages.For a long time,the theory of"America's decline"has only focused on the topic of the decline itself and turned a blind eye to the changes in its economic structure and the resulting political and economic implications,especially the changes in the core interests of the United States.The US’economic structure has been increasingly finance-oriented since the 1970s,which has led to two important results:One is the formation and strengthening of the US dollar system;the other is the formation of the global industrial chain featuring the US’technological innovation and its transfer of its manufacturing capacities to other countries.It is an important background or guarantee for Trump's launch of trade protectionist actions.The formation and development of the US dollar system is the most crucial change of the world economy in the 20th century.It allows the United States to build a world control system that is totally different from the hegemonic countries in the past.Its exploitation and control of the world has become more secretive;more importantly,it has changed the long-standing financial rules of mankind,i.e.,the creditor-centered rule has been changed into the debtor-centered rule.Such a change is an important foundation for all its economic behaviors in today's international community.The implementation of debtor-centered rule is mainly backed by the US dollar system.The core interest of the system lies in maintenance of an international monetary order that allows the US to take advantage of the debtor-centered rule to borrow heavily without being restrained by any other country.Based on the discussion of the financial rationale and operational mechanism of the US dollar system,this article analyzes the nature of the system and its global strength,before putting forward China’s overall strategy for dealing with the Sino-US trade disputes and its future development.