美国贸易政策制定中的观念、偏好与策略选择

Ideas, Preference and Strategic Choice in US' Trade Policymaking

在研究美国贸易政策的既有文献中,大多数学者都认为经济利益是决定美国贸易政策走向的主要因素。本文认为,观念变迁应该成为研究当前美国贸易政策调整的关键变量,因为特朗普政府的贸易政策反映出与以往政策的根本性变化。世界观、原则化信念以及因果观念这三个层次的观念通过影响美国公众的贸易偏好和决策者的策略选择在美国贸易政策制定中发挥了重要的作用。本研究对于理解中美当前贸易战的根源有着积极的意义。缓解当前中美经济对抗,仅仅有经济上针锋相对的反制措施是不够的,因为观念的变迁将会严重影响经济措施的效果。如何定位中国在现存世界体系中的地位,如何消解其他国家对于中国经济崛起的困惑与误解,将关系到中国未来与其他国家的经济关系。

Most scholars believe that economic interests are the main factor influencing a country’s trade policymaking.However,this article argues that the evolution of ideas should be a key variable in studying the current trade policy adjustments of the United States as the Donald Trump administration’s trade policy reflects a marked departure from policy stances of his predecessors.Three levels of ideas,including world view,principle-based belief and causality,play an important role in the formulation of US’trade policy by influencing the trade preferences of the US public and the strategic choices of its policymakers.This article helps understand the root causes of the current trade war between China and the United States.To alleviate the ongoing Sino-US economic confrontation,it is inadequate for China to take economic counter-measures since the evolution of ideas will undermine the effectiveness of those economic measures.How to position itself in the current world system and how to disperse other countries’confusion about and misunderstanding of its economic rise will be crucial for China’s future economic relations with the rest of the world.