“二孩”政策下广东人口趋势预测

Predict Guangdong Population under Two-child Policy

运用莱斯利(Leslie)模型建立人口结构发展模型,根据2010年人口普查数据并参考部分文献数据得出了广东生育率变化的估算,并对"二孩"政策下广东省人口总量、劳动人口总量和老龄化程度在2060年前的发展趋势进行了预测。研究发现:(1)"二孩"政策使广东省人口峰值推迟了约10年到来,也使广东省劳动人口总量推迟了约10年才开始下降;(2)"二孩"政策对降低广东省老年抚养比具备一定的积极影响,但这种影响效果要推迟至2030年以后才会显现;(3)"二孩"政策几乎无法改变广东未来老龄化不断加深和劳动人口供给下降的大趋势。广东省今后有必要更进一步放松人口政策,并加快出台除生育率以外的促进广东人口增长的政策。

Based on the Leslie Matrix Model and the Census data in 2010,we estimate the change of fertility in Guangdong Province.Meanwhile,under different population policies we predict the population,working population,and aging population in Guangdong until 2060.Our conclusions are as following:1)The Comprehensive Two-child Policy will delay population summit in Guangdong about ten years.This is the same for working population.2)The Comprehensive Two-child Policy will have a little effect on the ratio of age until 2030.3)The Comprehensive Two-child Policy is unable to change the trend of both decreasing in working population and increasing in ageing population.So,more and more measures are necessary for Guangdong to stimulate the growth of population.