全球价值链嵌入与国际经济周期联动:基于增加值贸易视角

The Global Value Chain Embeddedness and International Business Cycle Co-movement: Based on the View of Value-Added Trade

本文利用行业层面双边出口的增加值分解数据,从增加值贸易视角研究了全球价值链(GVC)嵌入对国际经济周期联动的影响。结果表明:GVC嵌入是促进经济周期联动的重要因素。从行业层面上看,同行业和跨行业的GVC嵌入均具有显著的积极影响,但同行业嵌入对国内增加值存在明显的"挤出效应",而服务业与制造业的相互嵌入对经济周期联动的促进作用较大;从区域层面上看,欧盟、北美的区域内价值链以及欧盟、北美和亚太相互之间的区域间价值链嵌入程度较高,对经济周期联动的影响较大;从国别层面来看,垂直一体化程度最高的"南北国家嵌入"对经济周期联动影响最大。此外,对中国经验的考察也发现了GVC嵌入对经济周期联动总体上具有积极影响。

Using the value-added data of bilateral exports at the industry level,we examine the impact of global value chain embeddedness(GVCE)on international business cycle comovement(IBCC).The results show that GVCE is one of the most important factors to promote IBCC.At the industrial level,GVCE has a significant positive impact on IBCC in both intra-and inter-industry.However,there is an obvious“crowding out effect”in valueadded trading through embeddedness within the same industries,while the embeddedness across the manufacturing and service sectors presents a significantly positive impact on IBCC.At the regional level,the GVCE in the intraregional value chain of the European Union and North America,and the interregional value chain between the European Union,North America and Asia?Pacific are high,which means they have a strong impact on the IBCC.At the country level,the embeddedness of developed countries and developing countries with higher integration shows a stronger impact than others.As for China,we find similar results.