中期预算、权责发生制与政府债务控制——基于跨国面板数据的分析

Medium-term Expenditure Framework,Accrual Basis and the Control of Government Debts—Analysis of International Panel Data

近年来,世界各大经济体的政府债务规模和赤字水平持续上升,我国的名义财政赤字与实际财政赤字的差距和政府债务规模也呈现出扩大趋势。本文采用1991—2015年全球45个国家的数据,试图发现中期预算与权责发生制记账基础对政府债务控制的作用路径及协同效应。本文认为,中期预算与权责发生制对政府债务的控制有直接约束和间接约束两种路径。两者的直接约束表现为通过控制政府财政支出降低财政赤字水平,而间接约束表现为通过增强政府财政透明度提高债务风险防范能力。两者对政府债务的控制在短期内以间接约束为主,在长期内以直接约束为主,并具有长期协同效应。本文的政策建议是:(1)在构建政府债务控制机制时,应进一步明确我国中期预算实施的路线图,并与政府会计改革以及政府绩效评价相衔接;(2)在改革的次序上,应螺旋式推进政府会计改革与中期预算阶段晋级,构建债务风险有效约束环境,扩大协同效应。

In recent years,the government debt sand deficit scale in many countries increased,and the gap between nominal deficit and real deficit and the government debt scale in China also showed an increasing trend.This paper uses the data of 45 countries from 1991 to 2015 to detect how medium-term expenditure framework and accrual government accounting basis influence the control of government debts,and the synergistic effect.We find that medium-term expenditure framework and accrual government accounting basis can control government debts in two ways:the direct way is constraining government expenditure and reducing the deficit level,and the indirect way is increasing government transparency and the ability to guard against government debt crisis.The control is mainly indirect in the short term,and mainly direct in the long term.The two instruments have a long-term synergistic effect in government debt control.Based on the analysis,we raise the following suggestions:further clarifying the road map about the medium-term expenditure framework,and connecting it with the government accounting reform and the government performance evaluation in the construction of government debt controlling mechanism;and promoting medium-term expenditure framework and government accounting basis reform in the correct order,to construct an environment to effectively restrain debt risk and to expand the synergistic effect.