美国对华汇率施压是否引起了人民币汇率异常报酬率

Does Political Pressure from the U. S. Cause Abnormal Return Rate of the RMB Exchange Rate?

从汇率政治经济学的角度看,汇率问题从来就不是纯粹的价格问题,也不是简单的一国国内宏观因素所能决定的,其背后涉及复杂的国际权力斗争和利益分配问题。美国作为国际货币权力的强国,长期以来对人民币汇率施压,逼迫人民币汇率升值。本文运用"分类事件异常报酬率法"研究2005年7月22日至2016年3月31日美国对华汇率施压是否引起了人民币汇率的异常报酬率。研究发现,从各类施压事件的综合影响效果来看,美国政治施压事件都没有引起人民币汇率的异常报酬率;来自美国国会的施压事件较行政部门事件对人民币汇率异常报酬率的影响更为显著;当人民币处于升值状态时,其汇率更容易在外部施压事件的影响下产生异常报酬率。在逆全球化思潮涌动、贸易保护主义兴起的背景下,中国货币当局应该密切关注美国对华汇率施压,尤其是国会部门的施压事件,同时通过进一步推动金融改革维护汇率稳定,削弱美国政治施压可能带来的外部金融风险,以降低美国政治压力对人民币国际化和中国金融稳定可能产生的消极影响。

In exchange rate political economics,the exchange rate issue has never been taken merely as a price issue,nor is it a variable just under the influence of macro factors within a country.Behind it are intricate global power disputes and distribution of interests.The U.S.,a country with internationally influential monetary power,has long been pushing the appreciation of RMB by imposing pressure on the RMB exchange rate.This paper applies the“classified event-abnormal return rate method”to determine whether political pressures from the U.S.caused abnormal return rate of the RMB exchange rate from July 22,2005 to March 31,2016.After examining the combined effect of various pressure events,the study found that the U.S.political pressure events did not cause abnormal return rate of the RMB exchange rate;in comparison to the pressure events initiated by administrative departments,the pressure events of U.S.Congress had more significant impacts on the abnormal return rate of the RMB exchange rate;when RMB is appreciating,its exchange rate is more likely to produce an abnormal rate of return under the influence of external pressure events.Against the backdrop of the anti-globalization trend and the rise of trade protectionism,Chinese monetary authorities should pay close attention to the political pressure events in which the U.S.,and especially the U.S.Congress have imposed pressure upon the RMB exchange rate,and meanwhile further promoted financial reforms to maintain exchange rate stability and dwindle possible external financial risks due to U.S.political pressure,thereby mitigating the negative impact of U.S.political pressure on RMB internationalization and financial stability in China.