产业结构升级的多重并发因果关系和非对称性——基于模糊集定性比较分析

Multiple Conjunctural Causation and Asymmetry of Upgrading of Industrial Structure——A Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis

以中国31个省份为案例,运用模糊集定性比较分析(fussy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis,fs QCA)技术,从组态视角分析产业结构升级的影响因素,得出导致我国各地区高产业结构层次和低产业结构层次的条件组态。研究结果表明,高人均GDP、高进出口贸易总额、高技术创新水平构成的组态,以及高人均GDP、高FDI、高人力资本水平的组态可以带来高产业结构层次,同时导致低产业结构层次的组态共五种。考察了条件组态而非单个变量对产业结构升级的影响,得出导致高和低产业结构层次的不同路径,这两方面体现了高、低产业结构层次及其原因具有多重并发因果关系;同时,探讨了产业结构升级及其影响因素的因果非对称性。

By collecting data from 31 provinces(cities and municipalities)in China and applying the qualitative comparative analysis(QCA)method,the factors that influence the upgrading of industrial structure is analyzed and the configurations that lead to high or low level of industrial structure are found out.The results show that the configuration of high GDP per capita,high total volume of import and export trade and high level of innovation,as well as the configuration of high level of GDP per capita,high foreign direct investment(FDI)and high level of human resources will result in the upgrading of industrial structure,and meanwhile five configurations will lead to low level of industrial structure.Compared to the past researches,the influence of a configuration rather than a single variable is analyzed;and different paths towards high and low level of industrial structures are pointed out,showing multiple conjunctural causation between the level of industrial structure and its influencing factors;meanwhile,the causal asymmetry is discussed.The method and conclusion can provide reference for further research in this field.