房价变动的利率和限购政策混合效应研究

The Mixed Effect of Interest Rates and Purchase Restriction Policies on House Price Fluctuation

基于供求模型定性分析利率、限购政策以及两者联动对房价的影响,结果显示均不明朗。使用2007—2014年我国70个大中城市的年度面板数据进行实证研究表明,全国层面上利率变动与房价呈负相关,限购政策反而拉高房价,但上调利率使限购政策变得有效。进一步对城市按经济发展水平和城镇化水平进行分类后发现,调控政策对房地产市场的影响具有显著的异质性。因此,房地产调控政策应综合考虑利率和限购政策的混合效应,全国范围可采用利率政策直接调控房价,而限购政策需配以其他措施。就单一城市而言,经济发展水平和城镇化水平双高城市适合采用限购政策来抑制房价,而非双高城市可利用利率和限购政策共同来调控房价。

Based on the supply and demand model,this paper qualitatively analyzes the impact of interest rates,purchase restrictions and their linkages on housing prices and finds out that the results are unclear.Using the annual panel data of 69 large and mediumsized cities from 2007 to 2014,the empirical research shows that at the national level,the change of interest rates is negatively correlated with house prices,while the purchase restriction policies increase house prices but it become effective by raising interest rates.After further classification of cities according to economic development and urbanization level,it is found that the impact of policies on the real estate market is significantly heterogeneous.Therefore,the real estate control policy should consider the mixed effect of interest rates and purchase restriction policies.The whole country can adopt the interest rates to control the house prices directly,while the purchase restriction policies need to be accompanied by other measures.In the case of a single city,doublehigh cities are more likely to adopt purchase restriction policies to restrain housing prices,while other cities can use interest rates and purchase restriction policies to jointly control housing prices.