蔡英文上任以来的台湾经济:景气好转背后的困境

The Taiwan Economy since Tsai Ing-wen Took Office: the Predicaments Behind the Economic Upturn

2016年以来台湾经济的若干主要指标有较大改善,台湾当局居为政绩并称得益于政策方向的正确,但台湾社会对景气的回升却普遍"无感"。究其原因,是因为表现好转的这些经济数据事实上存在"水分",同时,台湾经济深层次的结构性问题进一步加剧,突出表现于产业结构转型升级无力、内部需求疲弱及经济"空洞化"加速等方面。而台湾经济困境加剧的主因,是民进党当局的施政坚持政治优先与意识形态主导,所采取的内外经济政策均明显政治化,这伤害了台湾经济的健康发展,并造成原有的经济结构性问题更加严重。未来影响台湾经济的不利因素有岛内选举对经济的冲击、两岸关系形势更加紧张及美国发动的贸易战等。

There has been a significant improvement in Taiwan economic growth,exports and stock market since 2016,which is regarded as a political achievement and attributed to the correct policy orientation by the Taiwan authorities.However,Taiwan s society is generally"insensitive"to the pick-up.The reason for this insensitive response lies in the fact that these economic data with improved performance have,in fact,been overstated.On the other hand,the deep-seated structural problems of Taiwan economy have further been aggravated,which is highlighted by the inability to upgrade the industrial structure,the weak internal demand and the acceleration of economic"hollowing out".However,the main reason for the aggravation of Taiwan economic predicament is that the DPP authorities insist on political priority and ideological leadership,and the internal and external economic policies are obviously politicized,which has harmed the healthy economic development of Taiwan and furthermore caused the original economic structural problems more serious.The negative factors that will affect Taiwan economy in the future include the impact of the island s election,the intensified cross-Strait tension and the trade war launched by the United States.