中国城乡居民生活消费碳排放变化的比较研究

A comparative study on the changes of residential living consumption carbon emissions in urban and rural China

基于碳排放系数法估算了1997～2015年中国城镇、农村和整体(包含城镇和农村)居民生活消费引起的直接碳排放量,进一步采用Dagum基尼系数和Kernel密度函数估计方法对中国城镇和农村居民生活消费碳排放的地区差距及分布动态进行实证研究.同时,采用乘积式对数平均迪式指数模型(M-LMDI)分析了直接能源消费强度、居民人均消费水平和单位能源碳排放强度3大因素对居民消费碳排放变化的影响,并重点考察了各省份相关变量对生活消费碳排放影响的城乡差异.结果表明:(1)中国城镇和农村居民人均生活消费碳排放量在研究期内呈现逐年递增的趋势,在空间上均存在显著非均衡特征.(2)中国居民人均生活消费碳排放的地区总差异呈现波动下降的趋势,从1997年的0.379下降到2015年的0.244.1997～1999年城镇和农村居民生活消费碳排放的组间差距是城乡差距的主要来源,其贡献率超过50%.2000年后组内差距成为城乡差距的主要来源,其贡献率均大于40%并超过了组间差距.(3)城镇和农村居民人均生活消费碳排放均在增加,地区差异均在扩大.(4)对全国居民生活消费碳排放变动贡献最大的省区是内蒙古,累计贡献值达0.1005.贡献最小的省区是云南,累计贡献值为0.0125.(5)农村的能源消费强度和人均消费水平的贡献程度在研究期内均大于城镇,单位能源碳排放强度在两个地区的贡献水平表现出了波动性.

Based on the carbon emission coefficient method,this paper estimated the direct carbon emissions caused by the residential living consumption of urban,rural and overall(including urban and rural)in China from 1997 to 2015.Further,the Dagum Gini coefficient and Kernel density function estimation method were used to test the regional disparities and distribution dynamics of residential living consumption carbon emissions in urban and rural China.At the same time,the Multiplicative Logarithmic Mean Divisia Decomposition Index(M-LMDI)method was used to analyze the effects of direct energy consumption intensity,per capita consumption level and unit energy carbon emission intensity on the changes of residential living consumption carbon emissions,and further we examined the urban-rural differences in the impact of relevant variables on residential living consumption carbon emissions in each province.The results suggested that:(1)the residential per living consumption carbon emissions in urban and rural China both showed an increasing trend year by year,and there were significant non-equilibrium characteristics in space.(2)The total regional disparities of residential per living consumption carbon emissions showed a downward trend from 0.379 in 1997 to 0.244 in 2015.The inter-group gap between urban and rural residents'consumption carbon emissions was the main source of urban-rural disparity from 1997 to 1999,and its contribution rate exceeded 50%.The intra-group gap became the main source of urban-rural disparity after 2000,and its contribution rate was greater than 40%that exceeded the inter-group gap.(3)The residential per living consumption carbon emissions of urban and rural both increased and the reginal differences enlarged as well.(4)The province that contributed the most to the changes in residential per living consumption carbon emissions in China was Inner Mongolia,with a cumulative contribution value of 0.1005.The province with the smallest contribution was Yunnan,with a cumulative contribution of 0.0125.(5)The contribution of rural energy consumption intensity and per capita consumption level were greater than the urban areas during the study period,and the contribution level of unit energy carbon emission intensity in in rural and urban showed volatility.