京津冀劳动力供给及经济发展方式转变下的需求研究

Research on the Demand of Labor under Transformation of the Mode of Economic Development and Supply of Labor in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei

京津冀发展中面临着大城市人口和企业事业过度集聚而产生的交通拥挤、资源紧缺、环境恶化等大城市病的压力;又面临着长期的全国性低生育水平导致的各地区人口老龄化以及劳动力供给下降的压力。本文采用生产函数反演法,对京津冀未来不同经济增长速度和不同综合要素生产率(发展方式)下的劳动力需求进行模拟和比较。结果显示,京津冀未来劳动力供给减少的可能性不断增强,为使区域经济实现持续高质量增长和发展,需要加快转变经济发展方式,提高综合要素生产率,从而减少对京津冀之外劳动力的需求,实现在人口不再大规模增加的前提下劳动力的供需平衡。因此,京津冀地区在新的人口发展和经济形势下,必须转变经济发展方式,通过创新驱动提高综合要素生产率,并保持必要的人口和劳动力规模与活力,进一步促进京津冀经济高质量发展。

Beijing Tianjin Hebei development is facing the city population and enterprise division of traffic congestion caused by excessive agglomeration,resource shortage,environment deterioration and other pressure of large urban diseases;meanwhile,it confronts the pressure of the aging population and the labor supply lessen caused by the long-term nationwide low fertility levels.In this paper,the production function inversion method is used to simulate and compare the labor demand under the different future economic growth rates and the different total factor productivities(or development modes)in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region.The results show that with the growing possibility of the future reduced labor supply.In order to achieve a sustained and highly quality development of regional economy,improvement of total factor productivity can reduce the demand for labor outside Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,which can balance relationship between supply and demand of labor under no expansion of population.Therefore,under the new population development and economic situation,it is necessary to change the mode of economic development;meanwhile,improvement of integrated factor productivity through innovation can maintain the necessary vitality for population and labor scale.Further improving the hight-quality development of economy.