河北省耕地利用变化对粮食生产的影响效应及时空格局分析

Effects of Cropland Change on Grain Production in Hebei Province:The Spatial-Temporal Pattern

耕地利用与粮食生产耦合研究对区域粮食安全和可持续发展意义重大。基于GIS和模型分解法从不同时空角度分析河北省耕地利用对粮食生产的影响格局,结果表明:1)1985-2015年河北省粮食总产显著增加,耕地时空变化差异驱动区域粮食生产空间分化显著,产量增幅呈现南高北低格局;2)不同尺度耕地影响效应同中存异,省域尺度粮食单产持续其较高贡献量,区域尺度影响格局有所变化,粮食单产和复种指数主要表现为增产作用,粮食单产贡献量较大但增产作用逐步减弱,耕地面积和粮播比减产作用明显,且呈增加趋势;3)不同阶段县域耕地利用变化对粮食生产的影响格局不同,单产正向效应显著但影响范围缩小,耕地面积和复种指数影响范围扩大,粮播比减产作用显著但影响范围先增后减。该研究可为河北省耕地利用以及粮食生产分区优化和动态调控提供参考。

It is very important to carry out coupling research between cropland use and grain production for food security and sustainable development.Based on GIS and the model decomposition method,this paper explores the effect patterns and evolvement rule of cropland use on grain production.Results show that:1)The total grain output of Hebei increased significantly from 1985 to 2015,and spatial-temporal changes of cropland use had driven the spatial differentiation of grain production.The grain growth rate was higher in the southern part than in the northern region.2)Similarities and differences were found among the impact of cropland change on grain production at different scales.Grain yield per hectare was the dominant contributor to the grain growth in provincial scale,while the effects of cropland change were different in regional scale.Grain yield per hectare and the multiple cropping index played an important role in the increase of grain production.Grain yield per hectare was the main contributor and its effects,however,were getting weaker.Cropland area and grain farming ratio played an important role in reducing grain production and the effects showed an increasing trend.3)Driving patterns of cropland on grain production of counties were different for different periods.With time evolution,the positive accumulated effect of grain yield per hectare was significant,while the counties affected by grain yield per hectare were decreasing.The regions affected by cropland area and multiple crop index were expanding.Grain farming ratio caused decline in grain production and the scope of impact showed a trend of increasing-then-decreasing.The above study provides guidance for the optimization and dynamic regulation of cropland use and grain production in Hebei.