埃及能源供需趋势与合作机遇探析

Analysis of Energy Supply and Demand Trends in Egypt and China-Egypt Cooperation Opportunities

埃及因其便利的海陆运输通道、重要的战略地位、丰富的油气资源、良好的发展前景、巨大的市场需求以及强烈的发展意愿成为我国"一带一路"倡议合作构想的理想区域。本文以埃及能源历史供需格局演变为切入点,综合预测其未来发展趋势;将埃及"2030愿景"规划与我国"一带一路"倡议及中非"十大合作计划"相结合,分析中国和埃及两国在能源及相关领域的合作机遇。得出:(1)埃及能源需求快速增长,而供应能力逐年下降,能源供需格局已由供大于求转变为供不应求,未来供需缺口将持续扩大,供需矛盾将不断加剧;(2)中埃两国合作优势互补,埃及能源及相关领域投资合作正处于良好机遇期。建议我国企业以深水地中海、西部沙漠及红海沿岸等作为重点区域开展油气勘查开发,以大开罗为中心、地中海沿岸-苏伊士运河-红海沿岸为环线开展电力及新能源、基础设施等多元化投资,将埃及打造成为我国企业进入中东-北非市场的战略支撑点。

Due to its convenient transportation channel,important strategic position,rich oil and gas resources,good development prospects,huge market demand and strong development desire,Egypt will become an ideal area of China s“The Belt and Road”initiative cooperation conception.In this paper,based on pattern evolution of energy supply and demand in history,a comprehensive predict on its future development trends is made for this country.Combining the Egypt s“2030 vision”plan,“The Belt and Road”initiative and China-Africa“Top Ten Cooperation Programs”,we analyze the cooperation opportunities of the two countries in energy and related fields.It is concluded that:(1)Egypt s energy demand is growing rapidly,while supply capacity is declining year by year.The supply and demand pattern of energy has shifted from being oversupply to short supply.The gap between supply and demand will continue to expand in the future,and the contradiction between them will continue to intensify.(2)The cooperation advantages of China and Egypt are complementary,and the investment cooperation in energy and related fields in Egypt is in a good opportunity period.It is suggested that Chinese enterprises take the Deepwater Mediterranean Sea,the western desert and the Red Sea along the coast as key areas to explore oil and gas resources,and take the big Cairo as the center,the Suez canal and the Red Sea along the coast of the Red Sea as a round line,to carry out the diversified investment of electricity,new energy and infrastructure,making Egypt a strategic support for Chinese enterprises to enter the Middle East and North Africa markets.